Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis

Agam Shah, Arnav Hiray, Pratvi Shah, Arkaprabha Banerjee, Anushka Singh, Dheeraj Deepak Eidnani, Sahasra Chava, Bhaskar Chaudhury, Sudheer Chava


Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the influence of claims in analyst reports and earnings calls on financial market returns, considering them as significant quarterly events for publicly traded companies. To facilitate a comprehensive analysis, we construct a new financial dataset for the claim detection task in the financial domain. We benchmark various language models on this dataset and propose a novel weak-supervision model that incorporates the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) in the aggregation function, outperforming existing approaches. We also demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed model by constructing a novel measure of *optimism*. Here, we observe the dependence of earnings surprise and return on our optimism measure. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly (under CC BY 4.0 license) available on GitHub.
Anthology ID:
2024.fever-1.21
Volume:
Proceedings of the Seventh Fact Extraction and VERification Workshop (FEVER)
Month:
November
Year:
2024
Address:
Miami, Florida, USA
Editors:
Michael Schlichtkrull, Yulong Chen, Chenxi Whitehouse, Zhenyun Deng, Mubashara Akhtar, Rami Aly, Zhijiang Guo, Christos Christodoulopoulos, Oana Cocarascu, Arpit Mittal, James Thorne, Andreas Vlachos
Venue:
FEVER
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
170–185
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2024.fever-1.21
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Agam Shah, Arnav Hiray, Pratvi Shah, Arkaprabha Banerjee, Anushka Singh, Dheeraj Deepak Eidnani, Sahasra Chava, Bhaskar Chaudhury, and Sudheer Chava. 2024. Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis. In Proceedings of the Seventh Fact Extraction and VERification Workshop (FEVER), pages 170–185, Miami, Florida, USA. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis (Shah et al., FEVER 2024)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2024.fever-1.21.pdf