@inproceedings{huang-etal-2024-confidence,
title = "Confidence is not Timeless: Modeling Temporal Validity for Rule-based Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting",
author = "Huang, Rikui and
Wei, Wei and
Qu, Xiaoye and
Zhang, Shengzhe and
Chen, Dangyang and
Cheng, Yu",
editor = "Ku, Lun-Wei and
Martins, Andre and
Srikumar, Vivek",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
month = aug,
year = "2024",
address = "Bangkok, Thailand",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2024.luhme-long.580/",
doi = "10.18653/v1/2024.acl-long.580",
pages = "10783--10794",
abstract = "Recently, Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting (TKGF) has emerged as a pivotal domain for forecasting future events. Unlike black-box neural network methods, rule-based approaches are lauded for their efficiency and interpretability. For this line of work, it is crucial to correctly estimate the predictive effectiveness of the rules, i.e., the confidence. However, the existing literature lacks in-depth investigation into how confidence evolves with time. Moreover, inaccurate and heuristic confidence estimation limits the performance of rule-based methods. To alleviate such issues, we propose a framework named \textbf{TempValid} to explicitly model the temporal validity of rules for TKGF. Specifically, we design a time function to model the interaction between temporal information with confidence. TempValid conceptualizes confidence and other coefficients as learnable parameters to avoid inaccurate estimation and combinatorial explosion. Furthermore, we introduce a \textit{rule-adversarial negative sampling} and a \textit{time-aware negative sampling} strategies to facilitate TempValid learning. Extensive experiments show that TempValid significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) rule-based methods on six TKGF datasets. Moreover, it exhibits substantial advancements in cross-domain and resource-constrained rule learning scenarios."
}
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<abstract>Recently, Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting (TKGF) has emerged as a pivotal domain for forecasting future events. Unlike black-box neural network methods, rule-based approaches are lauded for their efficiency and interpretability. For this line of work, it is crucial to correctly estimate the predictive effectiveness of the rules, i.e., the confidence. However, the existing literature lacks in-depth investigation into how confidence evolves with time. Moreover, inaccurate and heuristic confidence estimation limits the performance of rule-based methods. To alleviate such issues, we propose a framework named TempValid to explicitly model the temporal validity of rules for TKGF. Specifically, we design a time function to model the interaction between temporal information with confidence. TempValid conceptualizes confidence and other coefficients as learnable parameters to avoid inaccurate estimation and combinatorial explosion. Furthermore, we introduce a rule-adversarial negative sampling and a time-aware negative sampling strategies to facilitate TempValid learning. Extensive experiments show that TempValid significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) rule-based methods on six TKGF datasets. Moreover, it exhibits substantial advancements in cross-domain and resource-constrained rule learning scenarios.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Confidence is not Timeless: Modeling Temporal Validity for Rule-based Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting
%A Huang, Rikui
%A Wei, Wei
%A Qu, Xiaoye
%A Zhang, Shengzhe
%A Chen, Dangyang
%A Cheng, Yu
%Y Ku, Lun-Wei
%Y Martins, Andre
%Y Srikumar, Vivek
%S Proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
%D 2024
%8 August
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Bangkok, Thailand
%F huang-etal-2024-confidence
%X Recently, Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting (TKGF) has emerged as a pivotal domain for forecasting future events. Unlike black-box neural network methods, rule-based approaches are lauded for their efficiency and interpretability. For this line of work, it is crucial to correctly estimate the predictive effectiveness of the rules, i.e., the confidence. However, the existing literature lacks in-depth investigation into how confidence evolves with time. Moreover, inaccurate and heuristic confidence estimation limits the performance of rule-based methods. To alleviate such issues, we propose a framework named TempValid to explicitly model the temporal validity of rules for TKGF. Specifically, we design a time function to model the interaction between temporal information with confidence. TempValid conceptualizes confidence and other coefficients as learnable parameters to avoid inaccurate estimation and combinatorial explosion. Furthermore, we introduce a rule-adversarial negative sampling and a time-aware negative sampling strategies to facilitate TempValid learning. Extensive experiments show that TempValid significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) rule-based methods on six TKGF datasets. Moreover, it exhibits substantial advancements in cross-domain and resource-constrained rule learning scenarios.
%R 10.18653/v1/2024.acl-long.580
%U https://aclanthology.org/2024.luhme-long.580/
%U https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2024.acl-long.580
%P 10783-10794
Markdown (Informal)
[Confidence is not Timeless: Modeling Temporal Validity for Rule-based Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting](https://aclanthology.org/2024.luhme-long.580/) (Huang et al., ACL 2024)
ACL