Can Model Uncertainty Function as a Proxy for Multiple-Choice Question Item Difficulty?

Leonidas Zotos, Hedderik van Rijn, Malvina Nissim


Abstract
Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty. Specifically, we exploit model uncertainty towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models’ behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.
Anthology ID:
2025.coling-main.749
Volume:
Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Computational Linguistics
Month:
January
Year:
2025
Address:
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Editors:
Owen Rambow, Leo Wanner, Marianna Apidianaki, Hend Al-Khalifa, Barbara Di Eugenio, Steven Schockaert
Venue:
COLING
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
11304–11316
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2025.coling-main.749/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Leonidas Zotos, Hedderik van Rijn, and Malvina Nissim. 2025. Can Model Uncertainty Function as a Proxy for Multiple-Choice Question Item Difficulty?. In Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Computational Linguistics, pages 11304–11316, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Can Model Uncertainty Function as a Proxy for Multiple-Choice Question Item Difficulty? (Zotos et al., COLING 2025)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2025.coling-main.749.pdf