@inproceedings{ravikumar-2026-missing,
title = "The Missing ``{I} Don{'}t Know'': Why Three Reasoning-Reliability Findings Converge on Calibrated Abstention",
author = "Ravikumar, Srijith",
editor = "Zhang, Yue and
Xu, Ruifeng and
Purwarianti, Ayu and
Rong, Tong and
Suzuki, Jun",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing and the 5th Conference of the {A}sia-Pacific Chapter of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 2: Short Papers)",
month = nov,
year = "2026",
address = "Hengqin, China",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.aacl-short.34/",
pages = "513--524",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-440-8",
abstract = "Three recent results describe what look like unrelated LLM reliability problems. Yin et al. (2026) show reasoning RL collapses tool-reliability representations. Suleymanov et al. (2026) show that under safety-constrained generation, large models rewrite flagged spans while small models truncate. Bastounis et al. (2024) prove any consistent-reasoning system without an implicit ``I don{'}t know'' function must hallucinate infinitely often on broad problem classes. We argue these findings converge on a single intervention: calibrated abstention is what each independently identifies as the missing capability, even though the unavailability they document, a capability gap, a policy gap, and a recursion-theoretic gap, has a different source in each case. Honesty post-training has narrowed the gap in deployed models, but principled closure of the class Bastounis identifies requires a calibrated abstention function whose training signal at the leaderboard level is absent: dominant benchmarks assign zero reward to decline, so the leaderboard gradient that would select for the function does not exist. We propose four changes to evaluation: triple-scoring, abstention-rate reporting, capability-stratified evaluation, and mandatory calibration metrics. Benchmark reform is necessary, not sufficient, for closing the gap the theorem identifies."
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<abstract>Three recent results describe what look like unrelated LLM reliability problems. Yin et al. (2026) show reasoning RL collapses tool-reliability representations. Suleymanov et al. (2026) show that under safety-constrained generation, large models rewrite flagged spans while small models truncate. Bastounis et al. (2024) prove any consistent-reasoning system without an implicit “I don’t know” function must hallucinate infinitely often on broad problem classes. We argue these findings converge on a single intervention: calibrated abstention is what each independently identifies as the missing capability, even though the unavailability they document, a capability gap, a policy gap, and a recursion-theoretic gap, has a different source in each case. Honesty post-training has narrowed the gap in deployed models, but principled closure of the class Bastounis identifies requires a calibrated abstention function whose training signal at the leaderboard level is absent: dominant benchmarks assign zero reward to decline, so the leaderboard gradient that would select for the function does not exist. We propose four changes to evaluation: triple-scoring, abstention-rate reporting, capability-stratified evaluation, and mandatory calibration metrics. Benchmark reform is necessary, not sufficient, for closing the gap the theorem identifies.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T The Missing “I Don’t Know”: Why Three Reasoning-Reliability Findings Converge on Calibrated Abstention
%A Ravikumar, Srijith
%Y Zhang, Yue
%Y Xu, Ruifeng
%Y Purwarianti, Ayu
%Y Rong, Tong
%Y Suzuki, Jun
%S Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing and the 5th Conference of the Asia-Pacific Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 2: Short Papers)
%D 2026
%8 November
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Hengqin, China
%@ 979-8-89176-440-8
%F ravikumar-2026-missing
%X Three recent results describe what look like unrelated LLM reliability problems. Yin et al. (2026) show reasoning RL collapses tool-reliability representations. Suleymanov et al. (2026) show that under safety-constrained generation, large models rewrite flagged spans while small models truncate. Bastounis et al. (2024) prove any consistent-reasoning system without an implicit “I don’t know” function must hallucinate infinitely often on broad problem classes. We argue these findings converge on a single intervention: calibrated abstention is what each independently identifies as the missing capability, even though the unavailability they document, a capability gap, a policy gap, and a recursion-theoretic gap, has a different source in each case. Honesty post-training has narrowed the gap in deployed models, but principled closure of the class Bastounis identifies requires a calibrated abstention function whose training signal at the leaderboard level is absent: dominant benchmarks assign zero reward to decline, so the leaderboard gradient that would select for the function does not exist. We propose four changes to evaluation: triple-scoring, abstention-rate reporting, capability-stratified evaluation, and mandatory calibration metrics. Benchmark reform is necessary, not sufficient, for closing the gap the theorem identifies.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.aacl-short.34/
%P 513-524
Markdown (Informal)
[The Missing "I Don’t Know": Why Three Reasoning-Reliability Findings Converge on Calibrated Abstention](https://aclanthology.org/2026.aacl-short.34/) (Ravikumar, AACL-IJCNLP 2026)
ACL