LLM-MC-Affect: LLM-Based Monte Carlo Modeling of Affective Trajectories and Latent Ambiguity for Interpersonal Dynamic Insight

Yu-Zheng Lin, Bono Po-Jen Shih, John Paul Martin Encinas, Elizabeth Victoria Achom, Karan Patel, Jesus Horacio Pacheco, Sicong Shao, Jyotikrishna Dass, Soheil Salehi, Pratik Satam


Abstract
Emotional coordination is a core property of human interaction that shapes how relational meaning is constructed in real time. While text-based affect inference has become increasingly feasible, prior approaches often treat sentiment as a deterministic point estimate for individual speakers, failing to capture the inherent subjectivity, latent ambiguity, and sequential coupling found in mutual exchanges. We introduce LLM-MC-Affect, a probabilistic framework that characterizes emotion not as a static label, but as a continuous latent probability distribution defined over an affective space. By leveraging stochastic LLM decoding and Monte Carlo estimation, the methodology approximates these distributions to derive high-fidelity sentiment trajectories that explicitly quantify both central affective tendencies and perceptual ambiguity. These trajectories enable a structured analysis of interpersonal coupling through sequential cross-correlation and slope-based indicators, identifying leading or lagging influences between interlocutors. To validate the interpretive capacity of this approach, we utilize teacher-student instructional dialogues as a representative case study, where our quantitative indicators successfully distill high-level interaction insights such as effective scaffolding. This work establishes a scalable and deployable pathway for understanding interpersonal dynamics, offering a generalizable solution that extends beyond education to broader social and behavioral research.
Anthology ID:
2026.acl-long.1290
Volume:
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
ACL
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
27984–28000
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-long.1290/
DOI:
10.18653/v1/2026.acl-long.1290
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Yu-Zheng Lin, Bono Po-Jen Shih, John Paul Martin Encinas, Elizabeth Victoria Achom, Karan Patel, Jesus Horacio Pacheco, Sicong Shao, Jyotikrishna Dass, Soheil Salehi, and Pratik Satam. 2026. LLM-MC-Affect: LLM-Based Monte Carlo Modeling of Affective Trajectories and Latent Ambiguity for Interpersonal Dynamic Insight. In Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 27984–28000, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
LLM-MC-Affect: LLM-Based Monte Carlo Modeling of Affective Trajectories and Latent Ambiguity for Interpersonal Dynamic Insight (Lin et al., ACL 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-long.1290.pdf
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