@inproceedings{shu-etal-2026-fincall,
title = "{F}in{C}all-Surprise: A Large Scale Multi-modal Benchmark for Earning Surprise Prediction",
author = "Shu, Dong and
Liu, Yanguang and
Zhang, Huopu and
Du, Mengnan",
editor = "Liakata, Maria and
Moreira, Viviane P. and
Zhang, Jiajun and
Jurgens, David",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
month = jul,
year = "2026",
address = "San Diego, California, United States",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-long.610/",
pages = "13357--13370",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-390-6",
abstract = "Predicting corporate earnings surprises is a profitable yet challenging task, as accurate forecasts can inform significant investment decisions. However, progress in this domain has been constrained by a reliance on expensive, proprietary, and text-only data, limiting the development of advanced models. To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{FinCall-Surprise} (Financial Conference Call for Earning Surprise Prediction), the first large-scale, open-source, and multi-modal dataset for earnings surprise prediction. Comprising 2,688 unique corporate conference calls from 2019 to 2021, our dataset features word-to-word conference call textual transcripts, full audio recordings, and corresponding presentation slides. We establish a comprehensive benchmark by evaluating 26 state-of-the-art unimodal and multi-modal LLMs. Our findings reveal that (1) while many models achieve high accuracy, this performance is often an illusion caused by significant class imbalance in the real-world data. (2) Some specialized financial models demonstrate unexpected weaknesses in instruction-following and language generation. (3) Although incorporating audio and visual modalities provides some performance gains, current models still struggle to leverage these signals effectively. These results highlight critical limitations in the financial reasoning capabilities of existing LLMs and establish a challenging new baseline for future research."
}<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
<mods ID="shu-etal-2026-fincall">
<titleInfo>
<title>FinCall-Surprise: A Large Scale Multi-modal Benchmark for Earning Surprise Prediction</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Dong</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Shu</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Yanguang</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Liu</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Huopu</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zhang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Mengnan</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Du</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<dateIssued>2026-07</dateIssued>
</originInfo>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Maria</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Liakata</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Viviane</namePart>
<namePart type="given">P</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Moreira</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Jiajun</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zhang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">David</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Jurgens</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Association for Computational Linguistics</publisher>
<place>
<placeTerm type="text">San Diego, California, United States</placeTerm>
</place>
</originInfo>
<genre authority="marcgt">conference publication</genre>
<identifier type="isbn">979-8-89176-390-6</identifier>
</relatedItem>
<abstract>Predicting corporate earnings surprises is a profitable yet challenging task, as accurate forecasts can inform significant investment decisions. However, progress in this domain has been constrained by a reliance on expensive, proprietary, and text-only data, limiting the development of advanced models. To address this gap, we introduce FinCall-Surprise (Financial Conference Call for Earning Surprise Prediction), the first large-scale, open-source, and multi-modal dataset for earnings surprise prediction. Comprising 2,688 unique corporate conference calls from 2019 to 2021, our dataset features word-to-word conference call textual transcripts, full audio recordings, and corresponding presentation slides. We establish a comprehensive benchmark by evaluating 26 state-of-the-art unimodal and multi-modal LLMs. Our findings reveal that (1) while many models achieve high accuracy, this performance is often an illusion caused by significant class imbalance in the real-world data. (2) Some specialized financial models demonstrate unexpected weaknesses in instruction-following and language generation. (3) Although incorporating audio and visual modalities provides some performance gains, current models still struggle to leverage these signals effectively. These results highlight critical limitations in the financial reasoning capabilities of existing LLMs and establish a challenging new baseline for future research.</abstract>
<identifier type="citekey">shu-etal-2026-fincall</identifier>
<location>
<url>https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-long.610/</url>
</location>
<part>
<date>2026-07</date>
<extent unit="page">
<start>13357</start>
<end>13370</end>
</extent>
</part>
</mods>
</modsCollection>
%0 Conference Proceedings
%T FinCall-Surprise: A Large Scale Multi-modal Benchmark for Earning Surprise Prediction
%A Shu, Dong
%A Liu, Yanguang
%A Zhang, Huopu
%A Du, Mengnan
%Y Liakata, Maria
%Y Moreira, Viviane P.
%Y Zhang, Jiajun
%Y Jurgens, David
%S Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
%D 2026
%8 July
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C San Diego, California, United States
%@ 979-8-89176-390-6
%F shu-etal-2026-fincall
%X Predicting corporate earnings surprises is a profitable yet challenging task, as accurate forecasts can inform significant investment decisions. However, progress in this domain has been constrained by a reliance on expensive, proprietary, and text-only data, limiting the development of advanced models. To address this gap, we introduce FinCall-Surprise (Financial Conference Call for Earning Surprise Prediction), the first large-scale, open-source, and multi-modal dataset for earnings surprise prediction. Comprising 2,688 unique corporate conference calls from 2019 to 2021, our dataset features word-to-word conference call textual transcripts, full audio recordings, and corresponding presentation slides. We establish a comprehensive benchmark by evaluating 26 state-of-the-art unimodal and multi-modal LLMs. Our findings reveal that (1) while many models achieve high accuracy, this performance is often an illusion caused by significant class imbalance in the real-world data. (2) Some specialized financial models demonstrate unexpected weaknesses in instruction-following and language generation. (3) Although incorporating audio and visual modalities provides some performance gains, current models still struggle to leverage these signals effectively. These results highlight critical limitations in the financial reasoning capabilities of existing LLMs and establish a challenging new baseline for future research.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-long.610/
%P 13357-13370
Markdown (Informal)
[FinCall-Surprise: A Large Scale Multi-modal Benchmark for Earning Surprise Prediction](https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-long.610/) (Shu et al., ACL 2026)
ACL