@inproceedings{uddin-bauer-2026-conformal,
title = "Conformal {LLM} Routing with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees",
author = "Uddin, Iqtedar and
Bauer, Andr{\'e}",
editor = "T.Y.S.S., Santosh and
Rodriguez, Juan Diego and
de Gibert, Ona",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics ({ACL} 2026)",
month = jul,
year = "2026",
address = "San Diego, California, United States",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-srw.70/",
pages = "791--799",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-393-7",
abstract = "LLM routing directs queries to a cheaper model when it suffices and to an expensive model otherwise, reducing inference cost. Existing input-based routers optimize cost-performance trade-offs but provide no formal bound on how often the cheaper model fails among routed queries. We adapt a proactive conformal gate framework to LLM routing. A logistic regression gate trained on text embeddings predicts per-query safety, and Clopper-Pearson conformal calibration selects a routing threshold that guarantees the violation rate among routed queries stays below $\alpha$ (the violation tolerance) with probability at least $1 - \delta$ (the confidence level). On two benchmarks covering math reasoning (GSM8K) and multi-domain knowledge (MMLU), routing between Mixtral-8x7B and GPT-4 (a 24.5$\times$ cost difference), our method maintains the target $\alpha$ within the $\delta$ tolerance across a sweep from 0.05 to 0.50, while a validation-tuned baseline crosses the violation boundary on GSM8K. A feasibility analysis across all 10 RouterBench models reveals that routability is jointly model- and task-dependent. To our knowledge, this is the first input-based LLM router with distribution-free safety guarantees."
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<abstract>LLM routing directs queries to a cheaper model when it suffices and to an expensive model otherwise, reducing inference cost. Existing input-based routers optimize cost-performance trade-offs but provide no formal bound on how often the cheaper model fails among routed queries. We adapt a proactive conformal gate framework to LLM routing. A logistic regression gate trained on text embeddings predicts per-query safety, and Clopper-Pearson conformal calibration selects a routing threshold that guarantees the violation rate among routed queries stays below α (the violation tolerance) with probability at least 1 - δ (the confidence level). On two benchmarks covering math reasoning (GSM8K) and multi-domain knowledge (MMLU), routing between Mixtral-8x7B and GPT-4 (a 24.5\times cost difference), our method maintains the target α within the δ tolerance across a sweep from 0.05 to 0.50, while a validation-tuned baseline crosses the violation boundary on GSM8K. A feasibility analysis across all 10 RouterBench models reveals that routability is jointly model- and task-dependent. To our knowledge, this is the first input-based LLM router with distribution-free safety guarantees.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Conformal LLM Routing with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees
%A Uddin, Iqtedar
%A Bauer, André
%Y T.Y.S.S., Santosh
%Y Rodriguez, Juan Diego
%Y de Gibert, Ona
%S Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL 2026)
%D 2026
%8 July
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C San Diego, California, United States
%@ 979-8-89176-393-7
%F uddin-bauer-2026-conformal
%X LLM routing directs queries to a cheaper model when it suffices and to an expensive model otherwise, reducing inference cost. Existing input-based routers optimize cost-performance trade-offs but provide no formal bound on how often the cheaper model fails among routed queries. We adapt a proactive conformal gate framework to LLM routing. A logistic regression gate trained on text embeddings predicts per-query safety, and Clopper-Pearson conformal calibration selects a routing threshold that guarantees the violation rate among routed queries stays below α (the violation tolerance) with probability at least 1 - δ (the confidence level). On two benchmarks covering math reasoning (GSM8K) and multi-domain knowledge (MMLU), routing between Mixtral-8x7B and GPT-4 (a 24.5\times cost difference), our method maintains the target α within the δ tolerance across a sweep from 0.05 to 0.50, while a validation-tuned baseline crosses the violation boundary on GSM8K. A feasibility analysis across all 10 RouterBench models reveals that routability is jointly model- and task-dependent. To our knowledge, this is the first input-based LLM router with distribution-free safety guarantees.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-srw.70/
%P 791-799
Markdown (Informal)
[Conformal LLM Routing with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees](https://aclanthology.org/2026.acl-srw.70/) (Uddin & Bauer, ACL 2026)
ACL