Reliability Estimation Methods for Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Mastery Classifications

Samuel D. Ihlenfeldt, Stephen E. Fancsali


Abstract
We evaluate the psychometric reliability of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing for skill mastery classification. Using large-scale intelligent tutoring system data, we compare two simulation-based approaches for estimating classification consistency as reliability. Results support both approaches, show reliability increases with response-sequence length, and highlight the necessity of adjusting for chance agreement.
Anthology ID:
2026.aimecon-main.32
Volume:
Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Full Papers
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
Editors:
Joshua Wilson, Christopher Ormerod, Magdalen Beiting-Parrish
Venue:
AIME-Con
SIG:
Publisher:
National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME)
Note:
Pages:
288–296
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-main.32/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Samuel D. Ihlenfeldt and Stephen E. Fancsali. 2026. Reliability Estimation Methods for Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Mastery Classifications. In Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Full Papers, pages 288–296, Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States. National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME).
Cite (Informal):
Reliability Estimation Methods for Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Mastery Classifications (Ihlenfeldt & Fancsali, AIME-Con 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-main.32.pdf