Prior-Informed 3PL Calibration: Reducing Sample Size via Predictive Modeling

Ruitao Liu, Aixin Tan


Abstract
This simulation study evaluates whether predictive item-parameter priors can reduce respondent requirements for 3PL IRT calibration. Across twenty seven prior-quality configurations and seven sample sizes (400–1600), six configurations were able to match a 2000- respondent baseline at 400 respondents, yielding an 80% sample-size reduction when informative priors were properly incorporated.
Anthology ID:
2026.aimecon-main.5
Volume:
Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Full Papers
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
Editors:
Joshua Wilson, Christopher Ormerod, Magdalen Beiting-Parrish
Venue:
AIME-Con
SIG:
Publisher:
National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME)
Note:
Pages:
36–42
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-main.5/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Ruitao Liu and Aixin Tan. 2026. Prior-Informed 3PL Calibration: Reducing Sample Size via Predictive Modeling. In Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Full Papers, pages 36–42, Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States. National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME).
Cite (Informal):
Prior-Informed 3PL Calibration: Reducing Sample Size via Predictive Modeling (Liu & Tan, AIME-Con 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-main.5.pdf