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        <title>Using AI-Simulated Response Probabilities for Item Difficulty Estimation</title>
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            <namePart type="given">Joshua</namePart>
            <namePart type="family">Wilson</namePart>
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            <namePart type="given">Magdalen</namePart>
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    <abstract>This paper evaluates an AI-based simulated administration approach for estimating item difficulty before empirical calibration. AI-generated option probabilities for synthetic examinees were converted into item difficulty estimates and compared with operational Rasch difficulty statistics. Results showed meaningful alignment, highlighting simulated administration as a potential tool for earlier item performance evidence.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Using AI-Simulated Response Probabilities for Item Difficulty Estimation
%A Bolender, Brad
%A Vispoel, Sara
%Y Wilson, Joshua
%Y Ormerod, Christopher
%Y Beiting-Parrish, Magdalen
%S Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Full Papers
%D 2026
%8 October
%I National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME)
%C Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
%@ 979-8-9983004-0-0
%F bolender-vispoel-2026-using
%X This paper evaluates an AI-based simulated administration approach for estimating item difficulty before empirical calibration. AI-generated option probabilities for synthetic examinees were converted into item difficulty estimates and compared with operational Rasch difficulty statistics. Results showed meaningful alignment, highlighting simulated administration as a potential tool for earlier item performance evidence.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-main.68/
%P 606-611

Markdown (Informal)

[Using AI-Simulated Response Probabilities for Item Difficulty Estimation](https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-main.68/) (Bolender & Vispoel, AIME-Con 2026)

• Using AI-Simulated Response Probabilities for Item Difficulty Estimation (Bolender & Vispoel, AIME-Con 2026)

ACL

• Brad Bolender and Sara Vispoel. 2026. Using AI-Simulated Response Probabilities for Item Difficulty Estimation. In Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Full Papers, pages 606–611, Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States. National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME).