Calibrated, Interpretable Automated Scoring with LLM Likelihoods

Thomas Christie, Markus Hauru, Anna Rafferty


Abstract
Paradigms like IRT use measurement equations to model student behavior probabilistically. We investigate an analogous LLM-based approach, the noisy channel model, to compute and compare the conditional likelihoods of student writing and produce auditable token-level inferences about student skills. We compare against other LLM-based methods on accuracy, calibration, and interpretability.
Anthology ID:
2026.aimecon-wip.22
Volume:
Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Works in Progress
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
Editors:
Joshua Wilson, Christopher Ormerod, Magdalen Beiting-Parrish
Venue:
AIME-Con
SIG:
Publisher:
National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME)
Note:
Pages:
168–176
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-wip.22/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Thomas Christie, Markus Hauru, and Anna Rafferty. 2026. Calibrated, Interpretable Automated Scoring with LLM Likelihoods. In Proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence in Measurement and Education Conference (AIME-Con): Works in Progress, pages 168–176, Wyndham Grand Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States. National Council on Measurement in Education (NCME).
Cite (Informal):
Calibrated, Interpretable Automated Scoring with LLM Likelihoods (Christie et al., AIME-Con 2026)
Copy Citation:
PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.aimecon-wip.22.pdf