@inproceedings{khanmohammadi-etal-2026-reliable,
title = "How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domains",
author = "Khanmohammadi, Reza and
Miahi, Erfan and
Kaur, Simerjot and
Smiley, Charese and
Brugere, Ivan and
Thind, Kundan S and
Ghassemi, Mohammad M.",
editor = "Demberg, Vera and
Inui, Kentaro and
Marquez, Llu{\'i}s",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 19th Conference of the {E}uropean Chapter of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
month = mar,
year = "2026",
address = "Rabat, Morocco",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.eacl-long.78/",
doi = "10.18653/v1/2026.eacl-long.78",
pages = "1669--1754",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-380-7",
abstract = "The miscalibration of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, necessitating methods to accurately estimate the confidence of their long-form, multi-step outputs. To address this gap, we introduce the Reasoning Model Confidence estimation Benchmark (RMCB), a public resource of 347,496 reasoning traces from six popular LRMs across different architectural families. The benchmark is constructed from a diverse suite of datasets spanning high-stakes domains, including clinical, financial, legal, and mathematical reasoning, alongside complex general reasoning benchmarks, with correctness annotations provided for all samples. Using RMCB, we conduct a large-scale empirical evaluation of over ten distinct representation-based methods, spanning sequential, graph-based, and text-based architectures. Our central finding is a persistent trade-off between discrimination (AUROC) and calibration (ECE): text-based encoders achieve the best AUROC (0.672), while structurally-aware models yield the best ECE (0.148), with no single method dominating both. Furthermore, we find that increased architectural complexity does not reliably outperform simpler sequential baselines, suggesting a performance ceiling for methods relying solely on chunk-level hidden states. This work provides the most comprehensive benchmark for this task to date, establishing rigorous baselines and demonstrating the limitations of current representation-based paradigms."
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<abstract>The miscalibration of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, necessitating methods to accurately estimate the confidence of their long-form, multi-step outputs. To address this gap, we introduce the Reasoning Model Confidence estimation Benchmark (RMCB), a public resource of 347,496 reasoning traces from six popular LRMs across different architectural families. The benchmark is constructed from a diverse suite of datasets spanning high-stakes domains, including clinical, financial, legal, and mathematical reasoning, alongside complex general reasoning benchmarks, with correctness annotations provided for all samples. Using RMCB, we conduct a large-scale empirical evaluation of over ten distinct representation-based methods, spanning sequential, graph-based, and text-based architectures. Our central finding is a persistent trade-off between discrimination (AUROC) and calibration (ECE): text-based encoders achieve the best AUROC (0.672), while structurally-aware models yield the best ECE (0.148), with no single method dominating both. Furthermore, we find that increased architectural complexity does not reliably outperform simpler sequential baselines, suggesting a performance ceiling for methods relying solely on chunk-level hidden states. This work provides the most comprehensive benchmark for this task to date, establishing rigorous baselines and demonstrating the limitations of current representation-based paradigms.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domains
%A Khanmohammadi, Reza
%A Miahi, Erfan
%A Kaur, Simerjot
%A Smiley, Charese
%A Brugere, Ivan
%A Thind, Kundan S.
%A Ghassemi, Mohammad M.
%Y Demberg, Vera
%Y Inui, Kentaro
%Y Marquez, Lluís
%S Proceedings of the 19th Conference of the European Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
%D 2026
%8 March
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Rabat, Morocco
%@ 979-8-89176-380-7
%F khanmohammadi-etal-2026-reliable
%X The miscalibration of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, necessitating methods to accurately estimate the confidence of their long-form, multi-step outputs. To address this gap, we introduce the Reasoning Model Confidence estimation Benchmark (RMCB), a public resource of 347,496 reasoning traces from six popular LRMs across different architectural families. The benchmark is constructed from a diverse suite of datasets spanning high-stakes domains, including clinical, financial, legal, and mathematical reasoning, alongside complex general reasoning benchmarks, with correctness annotations provided for all samples. Using RMCB, we conduct a large-scale empirical evaluation of over ten distinct representation-based methods, spanning sequential, graph-based, and text-based architectures. Our central finding is a persistent trade-off between discrimination (AUROC) and calibration (ECE): text-based encoders achieve the best AUROC (0.672), while structurally-aware models yield the best ECE (0.148), with no single method dominating both. Furthermore, we find that increased architectural complexity does not reliably outperform simpler sequential baselines, suggesting a performance ceiling for methods relying solely on chunk-level hidden states. This work provides the most comprehensive benchmark for this task to date, establishing rigorous baselines and demonstrating the limitations of current representation-based paradigms.
%R 10.18653/v1/2026.eacl-long.78
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.eacl-long.78/
%U https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2026.eacl-long.78
%P 1669-1754
Markdown (Informal)
[How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domains](https://aclanthology.org/2026.eacl-long.78/) (Khanmohammadi et al., EACL 2026)
ACL