The Selection Effect: Why Compact LLM Verifiers for Emotion Classification Fail Behind Encoder Confidence Gates

Dmitry Tikhomirov, Andrey Savchenko


Abstract
Is a compact LLM verifier cost-effective for closed-label emotion classification when a supervised encoder is already available? We formulate inference-time escalation as cost-aware selective routing: an encoder predicts first, and only uncertain examples (via confidence, disagreement, or novelty gates) may be forwarded to a verifier. We run a Pareto search over thresholds and seven verifier slots, including zero-shot Qwen3.5-4B, LoRA-tuned Qwen, voting, self-consistency, MultiAgentESC-style routing, heterogeneous voting, and a second encoder. Across three-seed RoBERTa experiments, DeBERTa robustness checks, and an additional Russian XLM-R diagnostic, no compact-LLM verifier improves the high-quality low-cost frontier. The mechanism is a selection effect: encoder gating forwards a conditional slice on which compact LLMs perform no better than the encoder itself, or substantially worse, erasing any standalone LLM advantage. Encoder-only gating, split-conformal acceptance, and a small RoBERTa ensemble are strictly preferable alternatives.
Anthology ID:
2026.emnlp-main.1049
Volume:
Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Junyi Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
EMNLP
SIG:
SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
24095–24114
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.1049/
DOI:
10.18653/2026.emnlp-main.1049
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Dmitry Tikhomirov and Andrey Savchenko. 2026. The Selection Effect: Why Compact LLM Verifiers for Emotion Classification Fail Behind Encoder Confidence Gates. In Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, pages 24095–24114, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
The Selection Effect: Why Compact LLM Verifiers for Emotion Classification Fail Behind Encoder Confidence Gates (Tikhomirov & Savchenko, EMNLP 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.1049.pdf