Tampered ML: Evaluating LLM Judgment of Machine Learning Research

Soroush Ebadian, Parand A. Alamdari, Joe Benton, Hailey Joren


Abstract
One approach to accelerating progress on AI alignment is to automate parts of alignment research itself. Doing so requires systems that can perform reliably on hard-to-supervise research tasks, including identifying flaws in research proposals and evaluating whether a proposed experiment supports its intended claim. To evaluate this capability, we introduce **Tampered ML**, a benchmark of 1,858 item-pairs, each consisting of an experiment proposal reconstructed from a published machine learning paper and a minimally edited counterfactual that introduces a targeted methodological flaw. Models must identify the more methodologically sound proposal in both presentation orders. A human validation study on a stratified sample estimates that 80-90% of items are valid. Frontier models perform above chance but remain far from reliable (with Opus 5 achieving 77.9% accuracy). They are highly sensitive to the order of presentation and favor flawed designs that appear more specific, transparent, or conventional.
Anthology ID:
2026.emnlp-main.1536
Volume:
Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
EMNLP
SIG:
SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
35058–35085
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.1536/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Soroush Ebadian, Parand A. Alamdari, Joe Benton, and Hailey Joren. 2026. Tampered ML: Evaluating LLM Judgment of Machine Learning Research. In Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, pages 35058–35085, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Tampered ML: Evaluating LLM Judgment of Machine Learning Research (Ebadian et al., EMNLP 2026)
Copy Citation:
PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.1536.pdf