On the Role of Supporting Evidence in LLM Reasoning: A Causal Analysis of Legal QA with Activation Patching

Dalmo Buzato, Fernanda Sathler Rocha Franco, Caio Alves Caldeira, Isabela Carolina Ribeiro Santos, Evandro L. T. P. Cunha, Pedro Calais, Wagner Meira Jr., Anisio Lacerda


Abstract
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly considered for high-stakes legal applications, a central question for trust and auditability is whether their outputs reflect genuine reasoning over the supplied legal materials, or merely surface statistical patterns absorbed during pre-training. We address this question at the mechanistic level by applying activation patching, a causal-mediation technique, to four open-source multilingual LLMs on two bar-exam datasets: U.S. MBE and Brazilian OAB. For each multiple-choice question we contrast a gold supporting passage with an irrelevant-but-plausible counterfactual. We then surgically replace residual-stream activations across layers and token regions and measure recovery of the logit difference. Gold passages exert a measurable but model- and linguistic-dependent causal effect; integration concentrates in the upper layers (a late-binding signature); and the size of the effect is strongly mediated by the linguistic and discourse structure of the passage itself, not just its relevance. We introduce a four-cluster taxonomy that operationalises these regimes and identifies cases where retrieved evidence is causally decisive, inert, or actively harmful.
Anthology ID:
2026.emnlp-main.1562
Volume:
Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
EMNLP
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SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
35623–35635
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URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.1562/
DOI:
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Cite (ACL):
Dalmo Buzato, Fernanda Sathler Rocha Franco, Caio Alves Caldeira, Isabela Carolina Ribeiro Santos, Evandro L. T. P. Cunha, Pedro Calais, Wagner Meira Jr., and Anisio Lacerda. 2026. On the Role of Supporting Evidence in LLM Reasoning: A Causal Analysis of Legal QA with Activation Patching. In Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, pages 35623–35635, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
On the Role of Supporting Evidence in LLM Reasoning: A Causal Analysis of Legal QA with Activation Patching (Buzato et al., EMNLP 2026)
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https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.1562.pdf