@inproceedings{kyriakou-etal-2026-shared,
title = "Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models",
author = "Kyriakou, Athina and
Ulmer, Dennis and
Titov, Ivan",
editor = "Lee, Hung-Yi and
Dev, Sunipa and
Li, Jessy and
Elliott, Desmond",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing",
month = oct,
year = "2026",
address = "Budapest, Hungary",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.2654/",
pages = "60407--60437",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-459-0",
abstract = "Confidence estimation (CE), i.e. quantifying the reliability of a model{'}s prediction, has attracted great interest in the context of large language models (LLMs). However, most studies focus on English, ignoring the multilingual reality of LLM usage, while many CE methods degrade or require retraining across languages. To address this gap, we investigate whether multilingual LLMs encode shared, language-transferable confidence features in open-ended question answering. We use a lightweight linear probe that predicts answer correctness directly from intermediate representations. Trained monolingually, the probe generalizes zero-shot to unseen, linguistically diverse languages without target-language supervision. Multiple ablations and learned layer weights reveal that confidence features concentrate in middle layers across languages, suggesting a shared confidence subspace. While zero-shot cross-lingual performance depends on similarity to the source language, the probe provides a strong baseline without any retraining and compares favorably to other popular confidence estimation methods."
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<abstract>Confidence estimation (CE), i.e. quantifying the reliability of a model’s prediction, has attracted great interest in the context of large language models (LLMs). However, most studies focus on English, ignoring the multilingual reality of LLM usage, while many CE methods degrade or require retraining across languages. To address this gap, we investigate whether multilingual LLMs encode shared, language-transferable confidence features in open-ended question answering. We use a lightweight linear probe that predicts answer correctness directly from intermediate representations. Trained monolingually, the probe generalizes zero-shot to unseen, linguistically diverse languages without target-language supervision. Multiple ablations and learned layer weights reveal that confidence features concentrate in middle layers across languages, suggesting a shared confidence subspace. While zero-shot cross-lingual performance depends on similarity to the source language, the probe provides a strong baseline without any retraining and compares favorably to other popular confidence estimation methods.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models
%A Kyriakou, Athina
%A Ulmer, Dennis
%A Titov, Ivan
%Y Lee, Hung-Yi
%Y Dev, Sunipa
%Y Li, Jessy
%Y Elliott, Desmond
%S Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
%D 2026
%8 October
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Budapest, Hungary
%@ 979-8-89176-459-0
%F kyriakou-etal-2026-shared
%X Confidence estimation (CE), i.e. quantifying the reliability of a model’s prediction, has attracted great interest in the context of large language models (LLMs). However, most studies focus on English, ignoring the multilingual reality of LLM usage, while many CE methods degrade or require retraining across languages. To address this gap, we investigate whether multilingual LLMs encode shared, language-transferable confidence features in open-ended question answering. We use a lightweight linear probe that predicts answer correctness directly from intermediate representations. Trained monolingually, the probe generalizes zero-shot to unseen, linguistically diverse languages without target-language supervision. Multiple ablations and learned layer weights reveal that confidence features concentrate in middle layers across languages, suggesting a shared confidence subspace. While zero-shot cross-lingual performance depends on similarity to the source language, the probe provides a strong baseline without any retraining and compares favorably to other popular confidence estimation methods.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.2654/
%P 60407-60437
Markdown (Informal)
[Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models](https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.2654/) (Kyriakou et al., EMNLP 2026)
ACL