Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation

Mingqi Gao, Anthony Sicilia, Weiyan Shi


Abstract
Across various non-verifiable tasks, human evaluation is reliable but expensive, while automatic metrics are more scalable but often biased. Building on prediction-powered inference (PPI), we propose prediction-powered evaluation, a framework that combines limited human judgments with large-scale automatic scores to obtain data-efficient system comparisons that are provably unbiased. We develop parametric and non-parametric procedures, analyze the efficiency trade-off between paired and unpaired designs, and validate the framework on six WMT datasets. We further introduce the Prediction-Powered Saving Ratio (PPSR), a meta-metric that measures how much human annotation an automatic metric can save when used within prediction-powered evaluation. PPSR directly targets metric utility for prediction-powered evaluation and yields more discriminative and stable metric rankings than existing system-level meta-metrics. Overall, our new paradigm reframes automatic metrics as tools for reducing human annotation cost rather than replacing human judgment, and applies broadly to non-verifiable tasks.
Anthology ID:
2026.emnlp-main.827
Volume:
Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
EMNLP
SIG:
SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
19215–19254
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.827/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Mingqi Gao, Anthony Sicilia, and Weiyan Shi. 2026. Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation. In Proceedings of the 2026 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, pages 19215–19254, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation (Gao et al., EMNLP 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.emnlp-main.827.pdf