IBPS: Indian Bail Prediction System

Uddeshya Raj, Puspesh Kumar Srivastava, Praveen Patel, Shubham Kumar Nigam, Noel Shallum, Arnab Bhattacharya


Abstract
Bail decisions constitute a large share of criminal proceedings in Indian courts, yet they often suffer from delays, inconsistency, and limited transparency. More than 75% of India’s prison population consists of undertrial prisoners, highlighting the urgency of improving the efficiency of bail adjudication. In this work, we present the Indian Bail Prediction System (IBPS), an AI-assisted framework that predicts bail outcomes and generates legally grounded explanations from factual case attributes and statutory context. We construct a large-scale dataset of 89,969 bail judgments from 5 High Courts of India, enriched with structured annotations such as statutes, custody duration, criminal history, health conditions, and judicial reasoning. Using this dataset, we design a two-stage architecture that combines a transformer-based classifier for outcome prediction with a fine-tuned large language model for rationale generation. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of combining structured legal data and large language models to develop interpretable AI systems that support data-driven analysis of bail decisions.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-aacl.63
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: IJCNLP-AACL 2026
Month:
November
Year:
2026
Address:
Hengqin, China
Editors:
Yue Zhang, Ruifeng Xu, Ayu Purwarianti, Tong Rong, Jun Suzuki
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
1236–1260
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-aacl.63/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Uddeshya Raj, Puspesh Kumar Srivastava, Praveen Patel, Shubham Kumar Nigam, Noel Shallum, and Arnab Bhattacharya. 2026. IBPS: Indian Bail Prediction System. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: IJCNLP-AACL 2026, pages 1236–1260, Hengqin, China. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
IBPS: Indian Bail Prediction System (Raj et al., Findings 2026)
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https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-aacl.63.pdf