@inproceedings{zhang-etal-2026-confidence-estimation,
title = "Confidence Estimation for {LLM}s in Multi-turn Interactions",
author = "Zhang, Caiqi and
Yang, Ruihan and
Zhu, Xiaochen and
Li, Chengzu and
Hu, Tiancheng and
Dong, Yijiang River and
Yang, Deqing and
Collier, Nigel",
editor = "Liakata, Maria and
Moreira, Viviane P. and
Zhang, Jiajun and
Jurgens, David",
booktitle = "Findings of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics: {ACL} 2026",
month = jul,
year = "2026",
address = "San Diego, California, United States",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-acl.1280/",
pages = "25661--25676",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-395-1",
abstract = "While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research overwhelmingly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new ``Hinter-Guesser'' paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. In contrast, a novel logit-based probe we introduce, P(Sufficient), proves comparatively more effective, robustly tracking evidence accumulation and distinguishing it from conversational filler. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents."
}<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
<mods ID="zhang-etal-2026-confidence-estimation">
<titleInfo>
<title>Confidence Estimation for LLMs in Multi-turn Interactions</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Caiqi</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zhang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Ruihan</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Yang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Xiaochen</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zhu</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Chengzu</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Li</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Tiancheng</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Hu</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Yijiang</namePart>
<namePart type="given">River</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Dong</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Deqing</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Yang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Nigel</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Collier</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<dateIssued>2026-07</dateIssued>
</originInfo>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Maria</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Liakata</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Viviane</namePart>
<namePart type="given">P</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Moreira</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Jiajun</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zhang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">David</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Jurgens</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Association for Computational Linguistics</publisher>
<place>
<placeTerm type="text">San Diego, California, United States</placeTerm>
</place>
</originInfo>
<genre authority="marcgt">conference publication</genre>
<identifier type="isbn">979-8-89176-395-1</identifier>
</relatedItem>
<abstract>While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research overwhelmingly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new “Hinter-Guesser” paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. In contrast, a novel logit-based probe we introduce, P(Sufficient), proves comparatively more effective, robustly tracking evidence accumulation and distinguishing it from conversational filler. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.</abstract>
<identifier type="citekey">zhang-etal-2026-confidence-estimation</identifier>
<location>
<url>https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-acl.1280/</url>
</location>
<part>
<date>2026-07</date>
<extent unit="page">
<start>25661</start>
<end>25676</end>
</extent>
</part>
</mods>
</modsCollection>
%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Confidence Estimation for LLMs in Multi-turn Interactions
%A Zhang, Caiqi
%A Yang, Ruihan
%A Zhu, Xiaochen
%A Li, Chengzu
%A Hu, Tiancheng
%A Dong, Yijiang River
%A Yang, Deqing
%A Collier, Nigel
%Y Liakata, Maria
%Y Moreira, Viviane P.
%Y Zhang, Jiajun
%Y Jurgens, David
%S Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026
%D 2026
%8 July
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C San Diego, California, United States
%@ 979-8-89176-395-1
%F zhang-etal-2026-confidence-estimation
%X While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research overwhelmingly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new “Hinter-Guesser” paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. In contrast, a novel logit-based probe we introduce, P(Sufficient), proves comparatively more effective, robustly tracking evidence accumulation and distinguishing it from conversational filler. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-acl.1280/
%P 25661-25676
Markdown (Informal)
[Confidence Estimation for LLMs in Multi-turn Interactions](https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-acl.1280/) (Zhang et al., Findings 2026)
ACL
- Caiqi Zhang, Ruihan Yang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li, Tiancheng Hu, Yijiang River Dong, Deqing Yang, and Nigel Collier. 2026. Confidence Estimation for LLMs in Multi-turn Interactions. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026, pages 25661–25676, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.