@inproceedings{ji-etal-2026-beyond,
title = "Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with {LLM}s",
author = "Ji, Daeun and
Kim, Minkyoung and
Kim, Dongkuk and
Lee, Yohan and
Kim, Beomsoo and
Jang, Beakcheol",
editor = "Lee, Hung-Yi and
Dev, Sunipa and
Li, Jessy and
Elliott, Desmond",
booktitle = "Findings of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics: {EMNLP} 2026",
month = oct,
year = "2026",
address = "Budapest, Hungary",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1491/",
doi = "10.18653/2026.findings-emnlp.1491",
pages = "31723--31746",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-462-0",
abstract = "Similarity-based retrieval is the dominant rule for conditioning large language models (LLMs) in in-context learning, retrieval-augmented generation, and prompt-based time series forecasting. The rule concentrates on near-duplicate candidates, an issue that has motivated diversity-aware retrieval but remains unexamined in other retrieval-conditioned pipelines. We study this issue using prompt-based time series forecasting as a test bed, where a learned prompt pool is retrieved by similarity. Dominant methods in this setting retrieve top-$K$ entries by cosine similarity without redundancy control, producing a bias toward dominant temporal patterns while overlooking rare but informative events. We propose CASP-LLM, a coverage-aware semantic prompting framework that addresses this prompt selection bias by combining usage-tracking and saturating-gate techniques into a coverage regularizer that adds no learnable parameters. On six long-term benchmarks and the M4 short-term benchmark, CASP-LLM matches or improves on similarity-based LLM forecasters on most dataset-horizon settings, with the exceptions of Electricity, M4-Monthly, and the few-shot long-horizon setting. A controlled study locates the failure mode at the cross-batch usage level rather than per-retrieval redundancy: within-retrieval diversification such as MMR does not help, whereas regularizing anchor usage across training does."
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<abstract>Similarity-based retrieval is the dominant rule for conditioning large language models (LLMs) in in-context learning, retrieval-augmented generation, and prompt-based time series forecasting. The rule concentrates on near-duplicate candidates, an issue that has motivated diversity-aware retrieval but remains unexamined in other retrieval-conditioned pipelines. We study this issue using prompt-based time series forecasting as a test bed, where a learned prompt pool is retrieved by similarity. Dominant methods in this setting retrieve top-K entries by cosine similarity without redundancy control, producing a bias toward dominant temporal patterns while overlooking rare but informative events. We propose CASP-LLM, a coverage-aware semantic prompting framework that addresses this prompt selection bias by combining usage-tracking and saturating-gate techniques into a coverage regularizer that adds no learnable parameters. On six long-term benchmarks and the M4 short-term benchmark, CASP-LLM matches or improves on similarity-based LLM forecasters on most dataset-horizon settings, with the exceptions of Electricity, M4-Monthly, and the few-shot long-horizon setting. A controlled study locates the failure mode at the cross-batch usage level rather than per-retrieval redundancy: within-retrieval diversification such as MMR does not help, whereas regularizing anchor usage across training does.</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with LLMs
%A Ji, Daeun
%A Kim, Minkyoung
%A Kim, Dongkuk
%A Lee, Yohan
%A Kim, Beomsoo
%A Jang, Beakcheol
%Y Lee, Hung-Yi
%Y Dev, Sunipa
%Y Li, Jessy
%Y Elliott, Desmond
%S Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
%D 2026
%8 October
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Budapest, Hungary
%@ 979-8-89176-462-0
%F ji-etal-2026-beyond
%X Similarity-based retrieval is the dominant rule for conditioning large language models (LLMs) in in-context learning, retrieval-augmented generation, and prompt-based time series forecasting. The rule concentrates on near-duplicate candidates, an issue that has motivated diversity-aware retrieval but remains unexamined in other retrieval-conditioned pipelines. We study this issue using prompt-based time series forecasting as a test bed, where a learned prompt pool is retrieved by similarity. Dominant methods in this setting retrieve top-K entries by cosine similarity without redundancy control, producing a bias toward dominant temporal patterns while overlooking rare but informative events. We propose CASP-LLM, a coverage-aware semantic prompting framework that addresses this prompt selection bias by combining usage-tracking and saturating-gate techniques into a coverage regularizer that adds no learnable parameters. On six long-term benchmarks and the M4 short-term benchmark, CASP-LLM matches or improves on similarity-based LLM forecasters on most dataset-horizon settings, with the exceptions of Electricity, M4-Monthly, and the few-shot long-horizon setting. A controlled study locates the failure mode at the cross-batch usage level rather than per-retrieval redundancy: within-retrieval diversification such as MMR does not help, whereas regularizing anchor usage across training does.
%R 10.18653/2026.findings-emnlp.1491
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1491/
%U https://doi.org/10.18653/2026.findings-emnlp.1491
%P 31723-31746
Markdown (Informal)
[Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with LLMs](https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1491/) (Ji et al., Findings 2026)
ACL