NUM2EVENT: Structured Event Inference from Numerical Time-Series

Ninghui Feng, Songning Lai, Xinan Chen, Zheng Chu, Yiyan Qi


Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong multimodal reasoning abilities, yet their understanding of purely numerical time-series remains limited. Existing approaches mainly focus on forecasting or trend description, providing little insight into the underlying events that have occurred or are unfolding within observed numerical dynamics. We study number-to-event reasoning and decoding, a task that infers interpretable and structured event hypotheses directly from numerical time-series when explicit event information is unavailable at inference time. The task focuses on aligned and plausible event semantics that help explain observed numerical dynamics. To address data scarcity and semantic alignment challenges, we propose a reasoning-aware framework that combines an agent-guided event extractor, a Hawkes-process-based synthetic data generator, and a multi-stage fine-tuning pipeline integrating a time-series encoder with a structured event decoder. The model generates intermediate reasoning steps and outputs constrained event representations. Experiments across multiple real-world domains show that our approach consistently outperforms strong LLM baselines in event-level precision and recall, demonstrating its effectiveness in bridging numerical reasoning and semantic event understanding. The code is available at https://github.com/feng1201/NUM2EVENT_IDEA
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-emnlp.1536
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
32675–32693
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1536/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Ninghui Feng, Songning Lai, Xinan Chen, Zheng Chu, and Yiyan Qi. 2026. NUM2EVENT: Structured Event Inference from Numerical Time-Series. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026, pages 32675–32693, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
NUM2EVENT: Structured Event Inference from Numerical Time-Series (Feng et al., Findings 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1536.pdf