<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
<mods ID="liu-etal-2026-recursive">
    <titleInfo>
        <title>Recursive Reasoning or Statistical Extrapolation? In-Context Learning in Multi-Agent Interdependent Decision-Making</title>
    </titleInfo>
    <name type="personal">
        <namePart type="given">Yu</namePart>
        <namePart type="family">Liu</namePart>
        <role>
            <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
        </role>
    </name>
    <name type="personal">
        <namePart type="given">Wenwen</namePart>
        <namePart type="family">Li</namePart>
        <role>
            <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
        </role>
    </name>
    <name type="personal">
        <namePart type="given">Yifan</namePart>
        <namePart type="family">Dou</namePart>
        <role>
            <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
        </role>
    </name>
    <name type="personal">
        <namePart type="given">Guangnan</namePart>
        <namePart type="family">Ye</namePart>
        <role>
            <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
        </role>
    </name>
    <originInfo>
        <dateIssued>2026-10</dateIssued>
    </originInfo>
    <typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
    <relatedItem type="host">
        <titleInfo>
            <title>Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026</title>
        </titleInfo>
        <name type="personal">
            <namePart type="given">Hung-Yi</namePart>
            <namePart type="family">Lee</namePart>
            <role>
                <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
            </role>
        </name>
        <name type="personal">
            <namePart type="given">Sunipa</namePart>
            <namePart type="family">Dev</namePart>
            <role>
                <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
            </role>
        </name>
        <name type="personal">
            <namePart type="given">Jessy</namePart>
            <namePart type="family">Li</namePart>
            <role>
                <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
            </role>
        </name>
        <name type="personal">
            <namePart type="given">Desmond</namePart>
            <namePart type="family">Elliott</namePart>
            <role>
                <roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
            </role>
        </name>
        <originInfo>
            <publisher>Association for Computational Linguistics</publisher>
            <place>
                <placeTerm type="text">Budapest, Hungary</placeTerm>
            </place>
        </originInfo>
        <genre authority="marcgt">conference publication</genre>
        <identifier type="isbn">979-8-89176-462-0</identifier>
    </relatedItem>
    <abstract>In-context learning (ICL) enables large language model (LLM) agents to improve decisions using interaction history, yet it remains unclear whether such improvement reflects refined internal reasoning or mere extrapolation of statistical patterns. To disentangle these mechanisms, we study LLM agents in multi-agent incomplete-information games that require recursive belief reasoning. By constructing a public goods game and manipulating the statistical structure of historical feedback, we evaluate decision quality against a history-independent rational expectations equilibrium (REE) benchmark. Our experiments reveal that when historical statistical patterns are disrupted, the benefits of longer context largely vanish, degrading decision quality to the no-context baseline in a way sharply amplified by stronger strategic interdependence. These results suggest that, in such strategic environments, ICL behavior is more consistent with statistical extrapolation than with strategic reasoning. Our work extends the mechanistic study of ICL to strategic multi-agent settings, introduces REE as a diagnostic tool for distinguishing reasoning from extrapolation, and provides a reusable framework for probing the boundaries of LLM reasoning in recursive belief tasks.</abstract>
    <identifier type="citekey">liu-etal-2026-recursive</identifier>
    <location>
        <url>https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1680/</url>
    </location>
    <part>
        <date>2026-10</date>
        <extent unit="page">
            <start>35873</start>
            <end>35895</end>
        </extent>
    </part>
</mods>
</modsCollection>

%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Recursive Reasoning or Statistical Extrapolation? In-Context Learning in Multi-Agent Interdependent Decision-Making
%A Liu, Yu
%A Li, Wenwen
%A Dou, Yifan
%A Ye, Guangnan
%Y Lee, Hung-Yi
%Y Dev, Sunipa
%Y Li, Jessy
%Y Elliott, Desmond
%S Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
%D 2026
%8 October
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Budapest, Hungary
%@ 979-8-89176-462-0
%F liu-etal-2026-recursive
%X In-context learning (ICL) enables large language model (LLM) agents to improve decisions using interaction history, yet it remains unclear whether such improvement reflects refined internal reasoning or mere extrapolation of statistical patterns. To disentangle these mechanisms, we study LLM agents in multi-agent incomplete-information games that require recursive belief reasoning. By constructing a public goods game and manipulating the statistical structure of historical feedback, we evaluate decision quality against a history-independent rational expectations equilibrium (REE) benchmark. Our experiments reveal that when historical statistical patterns are disrupted, the benefits of longer context largely vanish, degrading decision quality to the no-context baseline in a way sharply amplified by stronger strategic interdependence. These results suggest that, in such strategic environments, ICL behavior is more consistent with statistical extrapolation than with strategic reasoning. Our work extends the mechanistic study of ICL to strategic multi-agent settings, introduces REE as a diagnostic tool for distinguishing reasoning from extrapolation, and provides a reusable framework for probing the boundaries of LLM reasoning in recursive belief tasks.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1680/
%P 35873-35895

Markdown (Informal)

[Recursive Reasoning or Statistical Extrapolation? In-Context Learning in Multi-Agent Interdependent Decision-Making](https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1680/) (Liu et al., Findings 2026)

• Recursive Reasoning or Statistical Extrapolation? In-Context Learning in Multi-Agent Interdependent Decision-Making (Liu et al., Findings 2026)

ACL

• Yu Liu, Wenwen Li, Yifan Dou, and Guangnan Ye. 2026. Recursive Reasoning or Statistical Extrapolation? In-Context Learning in Multi-Agent Interdependent Decision-Making. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026, pages 35873–35895, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.