Back to the Future: Forward-Only Committor Projection for Trajectory-Level Collapse Attribution in RLVR Reasoning

Jaeeun Jang, Hansle Lee, Sangmin Kim


Abstract
GRPO-trained LLMs sharpen single-sample reasoning but collapse in policy entropy: 7B models lose to their base at Pass@64 on AIME. Existing mitigations score tokens from current-step statistics, missing that collapse is a trajectory-level event accumulating through coherent batch drift. We propose FRACT, a per-rollout score projecting a learned T-step committor’s gradient onto the entropy direction in the dual Fisher metric, with a forward-only closed form requiring no extra backward through the policy. As a sparse, sign-aware selective KL atop GRPO, FRACT improves Acc@16 over KL-Cov by +.037/+.034/+.045 across Qwen2.5-Base 1.5B/3B/7B and simultaneously raises Pass@1 and Pass@64 on all four benchmarks at 7B—mitigating, not merely shifting, the accuracy–diversity trade-off. Random-matched-mass gains only +.009 and Anti-FRACT underperforms GRPO by −.007 at 1.5B—the score, not regularization mass, is the cause at ∼1.5% structural overhead.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-emnlp.1720
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
Findings
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SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
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Pages:
36769–36801
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URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1720/
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Cite (ACL):
Jaeeun Jang, Hansle Lee, and Sangmin Kim. 2026. Back to the Future: Forward-Only Committor Projection for Trajectory-Level Collapse Attribution in RLVR Reasoning. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026, pages 36769–36801, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Back to the Future: Forward-Only Committor Projection for Trajectory-Level Collapse Attribution in RLVR Reasoning (Jang et al., Findings 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.1720.pdf