HTA: Temporal Reasoning Transformer with Temporal Context Encoding for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

Yingsong Ning, Fu Zhang, Jingwei Cheng, Jiashun Peng, Xiaoke Wang


Abstract
Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) forecasting aims to predict future facts based on historical temporal information and still faces key challenges such as event sparsity and complex long-term dependencies. While graph-based methods effectively capture relational structure, they often fail to model nuanced long-range temporal patterns. Alternatively, standard Transformers, while potent for sequence modeling, are fundamentally time-agnostic; their generic positional encodings overlook critical TKG-specific temporal dynamics. As a result, many approaches struggle to capture fine-grained temporal patterns, limiting their effectiveness in forecasting sparse or complex events. To address these limitations, we propose HTA (Hybrid Transformer Architecture). HTA first constructs a query-specific Attention-Ready Temporal Sequence (ARTS) by aggregating historical context along a query-centered temporal reasoning path. This atomic sequence represents timestamps as dedicated temporal tokens that are contextualized together with their associated relation and entity tokens. At its core, HTA employs a stack of hybrid Attention-Mixer Transformer Blocks that combine bidirectional self-attention for capturing long-range dependencies with MLP-based layers for efficient feature refinement. Extensive experiments on four diverse benchmarks show that HTA achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, on the sparse and challenging GDELT dataset, HTA achieves an absolute MRR improvement of over 18 points, demonstrating its superior ability to model complex and noisy temporal dynamics.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-emnlp.2041
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
43440–43453
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.2041/
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Cite (ACL):
Yingsong Ning, Fu Zhang, Jingwei Cheng, Jiashun Peng, and Xiaoke Wang. 2026. HTA: Temporal Reasoning Transformer with Temporal Context Encoding for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026, pages 43440–43453, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
HTA: Temporal Reasoning Transformer with Temporal Context Encoding for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting (Ning et al., Findings 2026)
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https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.2041.pdf