Faithful yet Collusive: Why Chain-of-Thought Monitoring Cannot Detect Collusion in LLM Pricing Agents under Oligopolistic Competition

Dohun Lee, Hyunwoo Park


Abstract
Large language models (LLM) deployed as autonomous pricing agents may sustain supracompetitive prices through tacit coordination. We develop a causal graph divergence framework that separately measures structural faithfulness and intent faithfulness of LLM pricing agents in Bertrand competition. Across nine LLMs under duopoly and triopoly conditions, collusive behavior and chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness dissociate along both dimensions: the most collusive model accurately reports cooperative intent yet reasons structurally unfaithfully, while the most structurally faithful model sustains supra-Nash pricing under both market structures. These findings establish that CoT monitoring alone cannot serve as a standalone safeguard against algorithmic collusion.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-emnlp.25
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Hung-Yi Lee, Sunipa Dev, Jessy Li, Desmond Elliott
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
SIGDAT
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
499–518
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.25/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Dohun Lee and Hyunwoo Park. 2026. Faithful yet Collusive: Why Chain-of-Thought Monitoring Cannot Detect Collusion in LLM Pricing Agents under Oligopolistic Competition. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026, pages 499–518, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Faithful yet Collusive: Why Chain-of-Thought Monitoring Cannot Detect Collusion in LLM Pricing Agents under Oligopolistic Competition (Lee & Park, Findings 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.25.pdf