@inproceedings{sun-etal-2026-supervalid,
title = "{S}uper{V}alid: Capability-Aligned {OOD} Validation for Generalizable Downstream Scaling",
author = "Sun, Quanen and
Tian, Changxin and
Shi, Ke and
Chen, Cai and
Peng, Cunyin and
Liu, Jia and
Chen, Kunlong and
Zhang, Zhiqiang",
editor = "Lee, Hung-Yi and
Dev, Sunipa and
Li, Jessy and
Elliott, Desmond",
booktitle = "Findings of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics: {EMNLP} 2026",
month = oct,
year = "2026",
address = "Budapest, Hungary",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.357/",
pages = "7480--7496",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-462-0",
abstract = "Scaling laws guide large language model training by relating compute to cross-entropy loss, and recent work further extends them to predict downstream benchmark performance. However, prior approaches face generalization limitations from two aspects: focusing on benchmark-level performance introduces scenario-specific artifacts, while relying on IID validation loss fails to track capability improvements when training distributions vary. In this work, we argue that downstream scaling should be studied at the capability level, which captures shared skill factors across related tasks while abstracting away benchmark-specific noise. We propose SuperValid, a framework that synthesizes OOD (out-of-distribution), capability-aligned validation data by distilling core concepts from benchmarks within a capability domain and expanding them into diverse, knowledge-rich texts. Extensive experiments spanning 16 benchmarks grouped into 6 capability domains show that SuperValid loss exhibits strong and stable correlation with downstream performance across models of different architectures, scales, and training data distributions. As a training-free metric computable during training without benchmark evaluation, SuperValid enables effective model selection, early stopping, and scaling decisions."
}<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
<mods ID="sun-etal-2026-supervalid">
<titleInfo>
<title>SuperValid: Capability-Aligned OOD Validation for Generalizable Downstream Scaling</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Quanen</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Sun</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Changxin</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Tian</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Ke</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Shi</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Cai</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Chen</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Cunyin</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Peng</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Jia</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Liu</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Kunlong</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Chen</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Zhiqiang</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Zhang</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<dateIssued>2026-10</dateIssued>
</originInfo>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Hung-Yi</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Lee</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Sunipa</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Dev</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Jessy</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Li</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Desmond</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Elliott</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Association for Computational Linguistics</publisher>
<place>
<placeTerm type="text">Budapest, Hungary</placeTerm>
</place>
</originInfo>
<genre authority="marcgt">conference publication</genre>
<identifier type="isbn">979-8-89176-462-0</identifier>
</relatedItem>
<abstract>Scaling laws guide large language model training by relating compute to cross-entropy loss, and recent work further extends them to predict downstream benchmark performance. However, prior approaches face generalization limitations from two aspects: focusing on benchmark-level performance introduces scenario-specific artifacts, while relying on IID validation loss fails to track capability improvements when training distributions vary. In this work, we argue that downstream scaling should be studied at the capability level, which captures shared skill factors across related tasks while abstracting away benchmark-specific noise. We propose SuperValid, a framework that synthesizes OOD (out-of-distribution), capability-aligned validation data by distilling core concepts from benchmarks within a capability domain and expanding them into diverse, knowledge-rich texts. Extensive experiments spanning 16 benchmarks grouped into 6 capability domains show that SuperValid loss exhibits strong and stable correlation with downstream performance across models of different architectures, scales, and training data distributions. As a training-free metric computable during training without benchmark evaluation, SuperValid enables effective model selection, early stopping, and scaling decisions.</abstract>
<identifier type="citekey">sun-etal-2026-supervalid</identifier>
<location>
<url>https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.357/</url>
</location>
<part>
<date>2026-10</date>
<extent unit="page">
<start>7480</start>
<end>7496</end>
</extent>
</part>
</mods>
</modsCollection>
%0 Conference Proceedings
%T SuperValid: Capability-Aligned OOD Validation for Generalizable Downstream Scaling
%A Sun, Quanen
%A Tian, Changxin
%A Shi, Ke
%A Chen, Cai
%A Peng, Cunyin
%A Liu, Jia
%A Chen, Kunlong
%A Zhang, Zhiqiang
%Y Lee, Hung-Yi
%Y Dev, Sunipa
%Y Li, Jessy
%Y Elliott, Desmond
%S Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026
%D 2026
%8 October
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C Budapest, Hungary
%@ 979-8-89176-462-0
%F sun-etal-2026-supervalid
%X Scaling laws guide large language model training by relating compute to cross-entropy loss, and recent work further extends them to predict downstream benchmark performance. However, prior approaches face generalization limitations from two aspects: focusing on benchmark-level performance introduces scenario-specific artifacts, while relying on IID validation loss fails to track capability improvements when training distributions vary. In this work, we argue that downstream scaling should be studied at the capability level, which captures shared skill factors across related tasks while abstracting away benchmark-specific noise. We propose SuperValid, a framework that synthesizes OOD (out-of-distribution), capability-aligned validation data by distilling core concepts from benchmarks within a capability domain and expanding them into diverse, knowledge-rich texts. Extensive experiments spanning 16 benchmarks grouped into 6 capability domains show that SuperValid loss exhibits strong and stable correlation with downstream performance across models of different architectures, scales, and training data distributions. As a training-free metric computable during training without benchmark evaluation, SuperValid enables effective model selection, early stopping, and scaling decisions.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.357/
%P 7480-7496
Markdown (Informal)
[SuperValid: Capability-Aligned OOD Validation for Generalizable Downstream Scaling](https://aclanthology.org/2026.findings-emnlp.357/) (Sun et al., Findings 2026)
ACL
- Quanen Sun, Changxin Tian, Ke Shi, Cai Chen, Cunyin Peng, Jia Liu, Kunlong Chen, and Zhiqiang Zhang. 2026. SuperValid: Capability-Aligned OOD Validation for Generalizable Downstream Scaling. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026, pages 7480–7496, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.