FRED-SemBench: Evaluating Semantic Reliability in LLM Access to Macroeconomic Data

Wilson Wang, Chandler Han, Peter Zhang


Abstract
Access to authoritative financial data does not ensure semantically correct answers: a language model may retrieve a valid observation associated with the wrong series, transformation, unit, or temporal interpretation. We introduce FRED-SemBench, a 200-question benchmark candidate over independently selected Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) concepts that separates retrieval failures from semantic data-access failures. We also instantiate Iris, an ontology-backed semantic layer whose versioned concept contracts bind user intent to provider series, transformations, units, temporal semantics, provenance, and declared coverage. A controlled comparison of an unaided model, FRED and Web access, and Iris reveals a reliability trade-off: raw retrieval substantially improves numerical answering while suppressing abstention and reducing clarification accuracy on underspecified queries. Within its pre-declared support set, Iris preserves the numerical benefit, restores clarification behavior, and attains the strongest strict accuracy, suggesting that this trade-off is not intrinsic to data access. These pilot findings motivate evaluating macroeconomic data access jointly in terms of semantic correctness, boundary behavior, coverage, and operational cost.
Anthology ID:
2026.finnlp-1.19
Volume:
Proceedings of the 11th Workshop on Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Jimin Huang, Yongjae Lee, Sophia Ananiadou, Hsin-Hsi Chen, Hiroya Takamura, Chung-Chi Chen
Venues:
FinNLP | WS
SIG:
SIGFinTech
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
237–242
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.finnlp-1.19/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Wilson Wang, Chandler Han, and Peter Zhang. 2026. FRED-SemBench: Evaluating Semantic Reliability in LLM Access to Macroeconomic Data. In Proceedings of the 11th Workshop on Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing, pages 237–242, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
FRED-SemBench: Evaluating Semantic Reliability in LLM Access to Macroeconomic Data (Wang et al., FinNLP 2026)
Copy Citation:
PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.finnlp-1.19.pdf