@inproceedings{paredes-amorin-etal-2026-news,
title = "Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned {LLM}s for Aluminum Price Forecasting",
author = "Paredes Amorin, Alvaro and
Python, Andre and
Weisser, Christoph",
editor = "El-Haj, Mo and
Moreno Sandoval, Antonio and
Garcia-Serrano, Ana and
Chen, Chung-Chi and
Rayson, Paul and
Torterolo Orta, Yanco Amor and
Martinez, Paloma and
Porta, Jordi",
booktitle = "The 7th Financial Narrative Processing Workshop",
month = may,
year = "2026",
address = "Palma de Mallorca, Spain",
publisher = "European Language Resources Association (ELRA)",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.fnp-1.6/",
doi = "10.63317/59x9shp32g6h",
pages = "59--77",
abstract = "By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices{---}and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative{---}remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting"
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<abstract>By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices—and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative—remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting</abstract>
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%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned LLMs for Aluminum Price Forecasting
%A Paredes Amorin, Alvaro
%A Python, Andre
%A Weisser, Christoph
%Y El-Haj, Mo
%Y Moreno Sandoval, Antonio
%Y Garcia-Serrano, Ana
%Y Chen, Chung-Chi
%Y Rayson, Paul
%Y Torterolo Orta, Yanco Amor
%Y Martinez, Paloma
%Y Porta, Jordi
%S The 7th Financial Narrative Processing Workshop
%D 2026
%8 May
%I European Language Resources Association (ELRA)
%C Palma de Mallorca, Spain
%F paredes-amorin-etal-2026-news
%X By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices—and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative—remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting
%R 10.63317/59x9shp32g6h
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.fnp-1.6/
%U https://doi.org/10.63317/59x9shp32g6h
%P 59-77
Markdown (Informal)
[Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned LLMs for Aluminum Price Forecasting](https://aclanthology.org/2026.fnp-1.6/) (Paredes Amorin et al., FNP 2026)
ACL