Looking Complete Is Not Being Grounded: Evaluating LLM Sitreps Against Human-Authored Situation Reports

Sachin Kumar


Abstract
Evaluation for automatic crisis reporting should measure what practitioners need, not what is convenient to compare. Through LLM-assisted, author-approved content analysis, we derive a 15-slot information schema from professional humanitarian situation reports using qualitative content analysis, then evaluate 121 human and 261 LLM-generated reports across five disasters and three hazard types. Under google/gemini-3.7-flash on Cyclone Idai, the best machine arm is nominally above the empirical human ceiling (0.827 vs. 0.821), but the difference is statistically indistinguishable from zero (95% bootstrap CI [-.049,.059]; permutation p=.852), and the ordering does not replicate under openai/gpt-5.6-luna. On a blind 100-item Idai sample, the author agrees with the Gemini judge at 0.910 accuracy and unweighted Cohen’s 𝜅=.799. All four judges clear the plan’s raw-agreement criterion of .7; only Gemini reaches .7 on chance-corrected 𝜅. Across the three primary events, machine reports reproduce 5.4–11.0% of same-day official figures. Across those same events, raw exact-number matching links 14.3–19.6% of official figures and 85.4–90.1% of machine figures to the social stream; manual audit confirms 45/50 declared absences, 4/25 official matches, and 24/25 machine matches semantically. The issuing-provenance gap is positive in all 12 observed event–judge cells: report date, organisation, series, and authority were not supplied at professional-report coverage in any cell. On the three primary events, ROUGE-L is uninformative, BERTScore is negatively associated with completeness after multiplicity correction, and a generic LLM judge changes sign.
Anthology ID:
2026.lt4cpr-1.7
Volume:
Proceedings of the First Workshop on Language Technologies for Crisis Preparedness and Response
Month:
November
Year:
2026
Address:
Hengqin, China
Editors:
Belu Ticona, Fei Xia, William D. Lewis, Antonios Anastasopoulos
Venues:
LT4CPR | WS
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
65–77
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.lt4cpr-1.7/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Sachin Kumar. 2026. Looking Complete Is Not Being Grounded: Evaluating LLM Sitreps Against Human-Authored Situation Reports. In Proceedings of the First Workshop on Language Technologies for Crisis Preparedness and Response, pages 65–77, Hengqin, China. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Looking Complete Is Not Being Grounded: Evaluating LLM Sitreps Against Human-Authored Situation Reports (Kumar, LT4CPR 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.lt4cpr-1.7.pdf