On the Neutrality of Model Confidence in German and English Gender-Bias Benchmarks

Shalaka Satheesh, Nika Jacob, Katharina Beckh


Abstract
Confidence, the probability a model assigns to its prediction, is commonly treated as a signal for correctness, and is central to quality monitoring and selective question answering. We ask whether this signal is neutral with respect to social stereotypes. A model’s confidence may reflect correctness well overall and yet be higher where its answers align with a stereotype and detecting this requires comparing confidence across stereotype directions. We investigate this on the gender subset of Bias Benchmark for Question Answering (BBQ) in English and in German (GG-BBQ), evaluating 22 base and instruction-tuned models from five providers. For some models, we find small but directionally consistent effects for both ambiguous and disambiguated questions, suggesting that confidence-based selection can favour stereotype-aligned content and that confidence is worth examining alongside answer-based scores in bias evaluations on multiple-choice questions.
Anthology ID:
2026.nlp4pi-1.29
Volume:
Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on NLP for Positive Impact (NLP4PI)
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Katherine Atwell, Angana Borah, Daryna Dementieva, Elisa Kreiss, Neema Kotonya, Jiarui Liu, Liz Olson, Ruyuan Wan, Jieyu Zhao
Venues:
NLP4PI | WS
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
339–348
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.nlp4pi-1.29/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Shalaka Satheesh, Nika Jacob, and Katharina Beckh. 2026. On the Neutrality of Model Confidence in German and English Gender-Bias Benchmarks. In Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on NLP for Positive Impact (NLP4PI), pages 339–348, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
On the Neutrality of Model Confidence in German and English Gender-Bias Benchmarks (Satheesh et al., NLP4PI 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.nlp4pi-1.29.pdf