BELIEFSIM: Towards Belief-Driven Simulation of Demographic Misinformation Susceptibility

Angana Borah, Zohaib Khan, Rada Mihalcea, Veronica Perez-Rosas


Abstract
Misinformation is a growing societal threat, and susceptibility to misinformative claims varies across demographic groups due to differences in underlying beliefs. As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human behaviors, we investigate whether they can simulate demographic misinformation susceptibility, treating beliefs as a primary driving factor. We introduce BeliefSim, a simulation framework that constructs survey-derived, demographic-group belief priors organized using a psychology-informed taxonomy. We study prompt-based conditioning and post-training adaptation, and conduct a multi-fold evaluation using: (i) susceptibility alignment and (ii) counterfactual demographic sensitivity. Across datasets PANDORA and MIST, belief priors improve susceptibility alignment, with larger gains on PANDORA. Finally, post-training adaptation reaches 92.4% accuracy and improves cross-participant generalization.
Anthology ID:
2026.pandora-1.20
Volume:
Proceedings of the First Workshop on Pluralistic AI NLP: Diversity-aware, Sociotechnical, Responsible Alignment (PANDORA 2026)
Month:
October
Year:
2026
Address:
Budapest, Hungary
Editors:
Shanshan Xu, Santosh T.Y.S.S., Kemal Kurniawan, Siyao Peng, Sarenne Wallbridge, Fajri Koto, Nouha Dziri, Barbara Plank
Venues:
PANDORA | WS
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
348–372
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.pandora-1.20/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Angana Borah, Zohaib Khan, Rada Mihalcea, and Veronica Perez-Rosas. 2026. BELIEFSIM: Towards Belief-Driven Simulation of Demographic Misinformation Susceptibility. In Proceedings of the First Workshop on Pluralistic AI NLP: Diversity-aware, Sociotechnical, Responsible Alignment (PANDORA 2026), pages 348–372, Budapest, Hungary. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
BELIEFSIM: Towards Belief-Driven Simulation of Demographic Misinformation Susceptibility (Borah et al., PANDORA 2026)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2026.pandora-1.20.pdf