@inproceedings{noor-fatima-2026-emo,
title = "Emo-tica at {S}em{E}val-2026 Task 2: Trait{--}State Affect Forecaster for Longitudinal Valence and Arousal",
author = "Noor, Sadia and
Fatima, Mehwish",
editor = "Kochmar, Ekaterina and
Ghosh, Debanjan and
North, Kai and
Komachi, Mamoru",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 20th {I}nternational {W}orkshop on {S}emantic {E}valuation (2026)",
month = jul,
year = "2026",
address = "San Diego, California, USA",
publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
url = "https://aclanthology.org/2026.semeval-1.31/",
pages = "213--220",
ISBN = "979-8-89176-414-9",
abstract = "Modeling longitudinal affect requires capturing both stable user tendencies and transient textual signals. For SemEval-2026 Task 2, we propose the Trait-State Affect Forecaster (TSAF), which decomposes affect into persistent user traits and text-conditioned states integrated through adaptive gating. On per-text prediction (Subtask 1), TSAF achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.645 for valence and 0.409 for arousal, outperforming the Linear(BERT) baseline. In forecasting tasks, results reveal strong short-term affective inertia, where prior affect dominates next-step prediction, while long-term drift remains challenging under sparse supervision; TSAF shows comparatively stronger gains for arousal in this setting. Analyses across user splits and modalities highlight the strengths and trade-offs of explicit trait-state modeling, particularly under cold-start and short-text conditions."
}<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3">
<mods ID="noor-fatima-2026-emo">
<titleInfo>
<title>Emo-tica at SemEval-2026 Task 2: Trait–State Affect Forecaster for Longitudinal Valence and Arousal</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Sadia</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Noor</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Mehwish</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Fatima</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">author</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<dateIssued>2026-07</dateIssued>
</originInfo>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Proceedings of the 20th International Workshop on Semantic Evaluation (2026)</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Ekaterina</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Kochmar</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Debanjan</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Ghosh</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Kai</namePart>
<namePart type="family">North</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Mamoru</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Komachi</namePart>
<role>
<roleTerm authority="marcrelator" type="text">editor</roleTerm>
</role>
</name>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Association for Computational Linguistics</publisher>
<place>
<placeTerm type="text">San Diego, California, USA</placeTerm>
</place>
</originInfo>
<genre authority="marcgt">conference publication</genre>
<identifier type="isbn">979-8-89176-414-9</identifier>
</relatedItem>
<abstract>Modeling longitudinal affect requires capturing both stable user tendencies and transient textual signals. For SemEval-2026 Task 2, we propose the Trait-State Affect Forecaster (TSAF), which decomposes affect into persistent user traits and text-conditioned states integrated through adaptive gating. On per-text prediction (Subtask 1), TSAF achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.645 for valence and 0.409 for arousal, outperforming the Linear(BERT) baseline. In forecasting tasks, results reveal strong short-term affective inertia, where prior affect dominates next-step prediction, while long-term drift remains challenging under sparse supervision; TSAF shows comparatively stronger gains for arousal in this setting. Analyses across user splits and modalities highlight the strengths and trade-offs of explicit trait-state modeling, particularly under cold-start and short-text conditions.</abstract>
<identifier type="citekey">noor-fatima-2026-emo</identifier>
<location>
<url>https://aclanthology.org/2026.semeval-1.31/</url>
</location>
<part>
<date>2026-07</date>
<extent unit="page">
<start>213</start>
<end>220</end>
</extent>
</part>
</mods>
</modsCollection>
%0 Conference Proceedings
%T Emo-tica at SemEval-2026 Task 2: Trait–State Affect Forecaster for Longitudinal Valence and Arousal
%A Noor, Sadia
%A Fatima, Mehwish
%Y Kochmar, Ekaterina
%Y Ghosh, Debanjan
%Y North, Kai
%Y Komachi, Mamoru
%S Proceedings of the 20th International Workshop on Semantic Evaluation (2026)
%D 2026
%8 July
%I Association for Computational Linguistics
%C San Diego, California, USA
%@ 979-8-89176-414-9
%F noor-fatima-2026-emo
%X Modeling longitudinal affect requires capturing both stable user tendencies and transient textual signals. For SemEval-2026 Task 2, we propose the Trait-State Affect Forecaster (TSAF), which decomposes affect into persistent user traits and text-conditioned states integrated through adaptive gating. On per-text prediction (Subtask 1), TSAF achieves composite Pearson correlations of 0.645 for valence and 0.409 for arousal, outperforming the Linear(BERT) baseline. In forecasting tasks, results reveal strong short-term affective inertia, where prior affect dominates next-step prediction, while long-term drift remains challenging under sparse supervision; TSAF shows comparatively stronger gains for arousal in this setting. Analyses across user splits and modalities highlight the strengths and trade-offs of explicit trait-state modeling, particularly under cold-start and short-text conditions.
%U https://aclanthology.org/2026.semeval-1.31/
%P 213-220
Markdown (Informal)
[Emo-tica at SemEval-2026 Task 2: Trait–State Affect Forecaster for Longitudinal Valence and Arousal](https://aclanthology.org/2026.semeval-1.31/) (Noor & Fatima, SemEval 2026)
ACL