Causality Analysis of Twitter Sentiments and Stock Market Returns

Narges Tabari, Piyusha Biswas, Bhanu Praneeth, Armin Seyeditabari, Mirsad Hadzikadic, Wlodek Zadrozny


Abstract
Sentiment analysis is the process of identifying the opinion expressed in text. Recently, it has been used to study behavioral finance, and in particular the effect of opinions and emotions on economic or financial decisions. In this paper, we use a public dataset of labeled tweets that has been labeled by Amazon Mechanical Turk and then we propose a baseline classification model. Then, by using Granger causality of both sentiment datasets with the different stocks, we shows that there is causality between social media and stock market returns (in both directions) for many stocks. Finally, We evaluate this causality analysis by showing that in the event of a specific news on certain dates, there are evidences of trending the same news on Twitter for that stock.
Anthology ID:
W18-3102
Volume:
Proceedings of the First Workshop on Economics and Natural Language Processing
Month:
July
Year:
2018
Address:
Melbourne, Australia
Editors:
Udo Hahn, Véronique Hoste, Ming-Feng Tsai
Venue:
ACL
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
11–19
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/W18-3102
DOI:
10.18653/v1/W18-3102
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Narges Tabari, Piyusha Biswas, Bhanu Praneeth, Armin Seyeditabari, Mirsad Hadzikadic, and Wlodek Zadrozny. 2018. Causality Analysis of Twitter Sentiments and Stock Market Returns. In Proceedings of the First Workshop on Economics and Natural Language Processing, pages 11–19, Melbourne, Australia. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Causality Analysis of Twitter Sentiments and Stock Market Returns (Tabari et al., ACL 2018)
Copy Citation:
PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/W18-3102.pdf