Speech is essential for realistic role-playing, yet existing work on role-playing agents largely centers on text, leaving Speech Role-Playing Agents (SRPAs) underexplored and without systematic evaluation. We introduce SpeechRole, a unified framework for developing and assessing SRPAs. SpeechRole-Data contains 98 roles and 111k speech-to-speech conversations with rich timbre and prosodic variation, providing large-scale resources for training SRPAs. SpeechRole-Eval offers a multidimensional benchmark that directly evaluates generated speech, preserving paralinguistic cues and measuring interaction ability, speech expressiveness, and role-playing fidelity. Experiments show that end-to-end SRPAs such as GPT-4o Audio achieve strong fluency and naturalness, but remain limited in prosody consistency and emotion appropriateness. Current open-source end-to-end models exhibit clear performance gaps, particularly in interaction ability and role-playing fidelity, while several cascaded systems achieve relatively stable performance on these dimensions. Furthermore, role-specific training can further improve the role-playing capabilities of end-to-end SRPAs.

The GPT-4 technical report suggests that downstream performance can be predicted from pre-training signals, but offers little methodological detail on how to quantify this. This work address this gap by modeling knowledge retention, the capacity of a pre-trained language model to memorize factual information from its corpus, and introduce a principled method to estimate it prior to training. We propose Size-dependent Mutual Information (SMI), an information-theoretic predictor that integrates knowledge frequency, knowledge specificity, and model size to forecast closed-book question answering (QA) accuracy. SMI is validated through large-scale document retrieval over the disclosed pre-training corpora of 21 public and 3 custom models, combined with a robust multi-template QA evaluation. Experiments show that SMI significantly outperforms repetition-based baselines and achieves R² > 0.7 in predicting QA accuracy for models above 1B parameters, without additional training. The analysis further reveals diminishing returns from scaling data and model size and provides evidence for an intrinsic upper bound on knowledge retention achievable by pre-training alone, motivating retrieval and other augmentation strategies.