Suicide is a leading cause of death, yet predicting it remains a significant challenge. Risk factors such as depression or substance use are commonly used for prediction, but their predictive performance is often only slightly better than chance. Additionally, many cases go undetected due to a lack of contact with mental health services. Social media, however, offers a unique opportunity, as people often share their thoughts and struggles online in real time. In this work, we propose a novel task and method intending to achieve a positive impact through earlier identification: we predict suicidal ideation and behavior (SIB) before a user ever expresses it on an online forum. We introduce Early-SIB, a transformer-based model that sequentially processes the posts a user writes and engages with to predict whether they will write a SIB post. Our model achieves a balanced accuracy of 0.73 in predicting future SIB on a Dutch youth forum, demonstrating that such tools can offer a meaningful addition to traditional methods. Additionally, we employ Shapley Additive Explanations to help human reviewers better understand the model’s predictions.

Rising mental health issues among youth have increased interest in automated approaches for detecting early signs of psychological distress in digital text. One key focus is the identification of cognitive distortions, irrational thought patterns that have a role in aggravating mental distress. Early detection of these distortions may enable timely, low-cost interventions. While prior work has focused on English clinical data, we present the first in-depth study of cross-lingual and cross-register generalization of cognitive distortion detection, analyzing forum posts written by Dutch adolescents. Our findings show that while changes in language and writing style can significantly affect model performance, domain adaptation methods show the most promise