Uncertainty estimation is an important diagnostic tool for statistical models, and is often used to assess the confidence of model predictions. Previous work shows that neural machine translation (NMT) is an intrinsically uncertain task where there are often multiple correct and semantically equivalent translations, and that well-trained NMT models produce good translations despite spreading probability mass among many semantically similar translations. These findings suggest that popular measures of uncertainty based on token- and sequence-level entropies which measure surface form diversity may not be good proxies of the more useful quantity of interest, semantic diversity. We propose to adapt similarity-sensitive Shannon entropy (S3E), a concept borrowed from theoretical ecology, for NMT. By demonstrating significantly improved correlation between S3E and task performance on quality estimation and named entity recall, we show that S3E is a useful framework for measuring uncertainty in NMT.

Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding outputs the hypothesis with the highest expected utility over the model distribution for some utility function. It has been shown to improve accuracy over beam search in conditional language generation problems and especially neural machine translation, in both human and automatic evaluations. However, the standard sampling-based algorithm for MBR is substantially more computationally expensive than beam search, requiring a large number of samples as well as a quadratic number of calls to the utility function, limiting its applicability. We describe an algorithm for MBR which gradually grows the number of samples used to estimate the utility while pruning hypotheses that are unlikely to have the highest utility according to confidence estimates obtained with bootstrap sampling. Our method requires fewer samples and drastically reduces the number of calls to the utility function compared to standard MBR while being statistically indistinguishable in terms of accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in experiments on three language pairs, using chrF++ and COMET as utility/evaluation metrics.