Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance. Finally, we show how Instant Confidence COMET can be used to decide which translations a human evaluator should score rather than relying on the COMET score.

The predictive uncertainty of machine translation (MT) models is typically used as a quality estimation proxy. In this work, we posit that apart from confidently translating when a single correct translation exists, models should also maintain uncertainty when the input is ambiguous. We use uncertainty to measure gender bias in MT systems. When the source sentence includes a lexeme whose gender is not overtly marked, but whose target-language equivalent requires gender specification, the model must infer the appropriate gender from the context and can be susceptible to biases. Prior work measured bias via gender accuracy, however it cannot be applied to ambiguous cases. Using semantic uncertainty, we are able to assess bias when translating both ambiguous and unambiguous source sentences, and find that high translation accuracy does not correlate with exhibiting uncertainty appropriately, and that debiasing affects the two cases differently.

Reranking, or scoring a list of prediction candidates from a machine translation system with an external scoring model and returning the highest-scoring candidate, remains a simple and effective method for improving prediction quality. However, reranking with high quality scoring models can add substantial computational cost to the translation pipeline, which we address in this work by framing list reranking as a Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) problem over the candidate list, where unknown scores are modeled with a Gaussian process. This algorithm scores candidates iteratively, choosing next candidates by balancing between exploration, choosing to score those that differ from candidates already scored, and exploitation, choosing to score those that resemble high-scoring candidates.This procedure finds high-scoring candidates while scoring only a fraction of the candidates list; given candidate lists of 200 random samples (before deduplication), our method achieves the same CometKiwi score using only 70 scoring evaluations on average compared to scoring a random subset of 180 candidates. We also propose multi-fidelity BayesOpt for list reranking, where scores obtained from a noisier but cheaper proxy scoring model are incorporated into the search process. We show that well-trained distilled proxy scorers can further improve the performance of BayesOpt.

Uncertainty estimation is an important diagnostic tool for statistical models, and is often used to assess the confidence of model predictions. Previous work shows that neural machine translation (NMT) is an intrinsically uncertain task where there are often multiple correct and semantically equivalent translations, and that well-trained NMT models produce good translations despite spreading probability mass among many semantically similar translations. These findings suggest that popular measures of uncertainty based on token- and sequence-level entropies which measure surface form diversity may not be good proxies of the more useful quantity of interest, semantic diversity. We propose to adapt similarity-sensitive Shannon entropy (S3E), a concept borrowed from theoretical ecology, for NMT. By demonstrating significantly improved correlation between S3E and task performance on quality estimation and named entity recall, we show that S3E is a useful framework for measuring uncertainty in NMT.

Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding outputs the hypothesis with the highest expected utility over the model distribution for some utility function. It has been shown to improve accuracy over beam search in conditional language generation problems and especially neural machine translation, in both human and automatic evaluations. However, the standard sampling-based algorithm for MBR is substantially more computationally expensive than beam search, requiring a large number of samples as well as a quadratic number of calls to the utility function, limiting its applicability. We describe an algorithm for MBR which gradually grows the number of samples used to estimate the utility while pruning hypotheses that are unlikely to have the highest utility according to confidence estimates obtained with bootstrap sampling. Our method requires fewer samples and drastically reduces the number of calls to the utility function compared to standard MBR while being statistically indistinguishable in terms of accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in experiments on three language pairs, using chrF++ and COMET as utility/evaluation metrics.