Turn-taking is a fundamental mechanism that governs when interlocutors speak and listen. Although Spoken Dialogue Systems (SDS) exploit a range of linguistic, acoustic, and non-verbal cues, they produce ill-timed responses in unscripted interaction. A central challenge is anticipating Transition Relevance Places (TRPs), or opportunities, not obligations, for a listener to take the floor. Human listeners do not wait for turn endings; as an utterance unfolds, they use expectations about its developing meaning to anticipate TRPs and decide whether to take the floor. We examine whether these evolving expectations can be modeled through semantic uncertainty—an LLM-derived measure of how strongly a turn so far constrains what may plausibly come next. To do so, we sample possible continuations of an ongoing turn and use changes in semantic dispersion to identify TRPs within turns. We evaluate this account on a dataset with TRP labels derived from real-time listener responses, rather than retrospective annotation. Our approach substantially outperforms prompt-based and fine-tuned text-only baselines, providing empirical support for the view that evolving semantic constraints inform perceived turn-taking opportunities in unscripted interaction.

Turn-taking is a fundamental mechanism in human communication that ensures smooth and coherent verbal interactions. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have motivated their use in improving the turn-taking capabilities of Spoken Dialogue Systems (SDS), such as their ability to respond at appropriate times. However, existing models often struggle to predict opportunities for speaking — called Transition Relevance Places (TRPs) — in natural, unscripted conversations, focusing only on turn-final TRPs and not within-turn TRPs. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel dataset of participant-labeled within-turn TRPs and use it to evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art LLMs in predicting opportunities for speaking. Our experiments reveal the current limitations of LLMs in modeling unscripted spoken interactions, highlighting areas for improvement and paving the way for more naturalistic dialogue systems.