User behavior simulation with large language models (LLMs) is increasingly used to support multi-agent ecosystem simulation. Existing simulators typically rely on static user profiles inferred from historical observations, which become inadequate in socially intensive environments such as live streaming where interaction dynamics continuously reshape user behavior. We propose LiveSim, an LLM-based framework for live-stream ecosystem simulation. It represents users as editable behavioral hypotheses and progressively refines them through trajectory-grounded interactions, where discrepancies between simulated and observed trajectories reveal missing environmental shaping effects. These signals are further extracted as transferable environment-behavior patterns and accumulated in a collective behavioral memory to improve user-level behavioral fidelity and support ecosystem-level simulation. Experiments on real-world live-stream risk-control data validate the effectiveness of LiveSim in improving user-level behavioral fidelity and enabling ecosystem-level analysis of risk evolution and platform intervention effects.