Jingyi Chai

Author directory

2026

Forecasting future events is a critical challenge for large language model (LLM) agents, spanning domains from elections and monetary policy to financial markets. However, evaluating progress on this task presents a fundamental trade-off between efficiency and environment fidelity. While live evaluation benchmarks suffer from an inherently slow feedback loop, existing retrospective replays typically restrict agents to static, pre-frozen databases that sacrifice the environmental realism of actual deployments. To tackle this issue, we introduce Agentic Time Machine (TM), an infrastructure that approximates the pre-cutoff web state at any chosen past time by filtering post-cutoff content. Leveraging this evaluation infrastructure, we further propose a planner-solver-aggregator multi-agent framework that breaks each question into diverse analytical angles, gathers evidence in parallel, and combines the results into a single forecast. Experiments show that offline scores under TM correlate strongly with live FutureX scores, validating that TM offers a fast and reliable sandbox for forecasting-agent evaluation. On FutureX-Past and Polymarket evaluated under TM, our framework achieves the highest score among strong closed-book, tool-augmented, and self-consistency baselines. On the live FutureX leaderboard, our system achieves the best average rank over four consecutive weeks, ranking 1st in May Week 1.

2024

The success of large language models (LLMs) facilitate many parties to fine-tune LLMs on their own private data. However, this practice raises privacy concerns due to the memorization of LLMs. Existing solutions, such as utilizing synthetic data for substitution, struggle to simultaneously improve performance and preserve privacy. They either rely on a local model for generation, resulting in a performance decline, or take advantage of APIs, directly exposing the data to API servers. To address this issue, we propose KnowledgeSG, a novel client-server framework which enhances synthetic data quality and improves model performance while ensuring privacy. We achieve this by learning local knowledge from the private data with differential privacy (DP) and distilling professional knowledge from the server. Additionally, inspired by federated learning, we transmit models rather than data between the client and server to prevent privacy leakage. Extensive experiments in medical and financial domains demonstrate the effectiveness of KnowledgeSG. Our code is now publicly available at https://github.com/wwh0411/KnowledgeSG.