Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) forecasting benchmarks challenge models to predict future facts using knowledge of past facts. In this paper, we develop an approach to use in-context learning (ICL) with large language models (LLMs) for TKG forecasting. Our extensive evaluation compares diverse baselines, including both simple heuristics and state-of-the-art (SOTA) supervised models, against pre-trained LLMs across several popular benchmarks and experimental settings. We observe that naive LLMs perform on par with SOTA models, which employ carefully designed architectures and supervised training for the forecasting task, falling within the (-3.6%, +1.5%) Hits@1 margin relative to the median performance. To better understand the strengths of LLMs for forecasting, we explore different approaches for selecting historical facts, constructing prompts, controlling information propagation, and parsing outputs into a probability distribution. A surprising finding from our experiments is that LLM performance endures (±0.4% Hit@1) even when semantic information is removed by mapping entities/relations to arbitrary numbers, suggesting that prior semantic knowledge is unnecessary; rather, LLMs can leverage the symbolic patterns in the context to achieve such a strong performance. Our analysis also reveals that ICL enables LLMs to learn irregular patterns from the historical context, going beyond frequency and recency biases

Learning low-dimensional representations for entities and relations in knowledge graphs using contrastive estimation represents a scalable and effective method for inferring connectivity patterns. A crucial aspect of contrastive learning approaches is the choice of corruption distribution that generates hard negative samples, which force the embedding model to learn discriminative representations and find critical characteristics of observed data. While earlier methods either employ too simple corruption distributions, i.e. uniform, yielding easy uninformative negatives or sophisticated adversarial distributions with challenging optimization schemes, they do not explicitly incorporate known graph structure resulting in suboptimal negatives. In this paper, we propose Structure Aware Negative Sampling (SANS), an inexpensive negative sampling strategy that utilizes the rich graph structure by selecting negative samples from a node’s k-hop neighborhood. Empirically, we demonstrate that SANS finds semantically meaningful negatives and is competitive with SOTA approaches while requires no additional parameters nor difficult adversarial optimization.