Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities and are receiving increasing attention to enhance their reasoning through scaling test-time compute. However, their application in open-ended, knowledge-intensive, complex reasoning scenarios is still limited. Reasoning-oriented methods struggle to generalize to open-ended scenarios due to implicit assumptions of complete world knowledge. Meanwhile, knowledge-augmented reasoning (KAR) methods fails to address two core challenges: 1) error propagation, where errors in early steps cascade through the chain, and 2) verification bottleneck, where the explore–exploit trade-off arises in multi-branch decision processes. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ARise, a novel framework that integrates risk assessment of intermediate reasoning states with dynamic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) within a Monte Carlo tree search paradigm. This approach enables effective construction and optimization of reasoning plans across multiple maintained hypothesis branches. Experimental results show that ARise significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art KAR methods by up to 23.10%, and the latest RAG-equipped large reasoning models by up to 25.37%. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/ARise.

Causal reasoning is a cornerstone of how humans interpret the world. To model and reason about causality, causal graphs offer a concise yet effective solution. Given the impressive advancements in language models, a crucial question arises: can they really understand causal graphs? To this end, we pioneer an investigation into language models’ understanding of causal graphs. Specifically, we develop a framework to define causal graph understanding, by assessing language models’ behaviors through four practical criteria derived from diverse disciplines (e.g., philosophy and psychology). We then develop CLEAR, a novel benchmark that defines three complexity levels and encompasses 20 causal graph-based tasks across these levels. Finally, based on our framework and benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on six leading language models and summarize five empirical findings. Our results indicate that while language models demonstrate a preliminary understanding of causal graphs, significant potential for improvement remains.

In this paper, we propose an effective yet efficient model PAIE for both sentence-level and document-level Event Argument Extraction (EAE), which also generalizes well when there is a lack of training data. On the one hand, PAIE utilizes prompt tuning for extractive objectives to take the best advantages of Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs). It introduces two span selectors based on the prompt to select start/end tokens among input texts for each role. On the other hand, it captures argument interactions via multi-role prompts and conducts joint optimization with optimal span assignments via a bipartite matching loss. Also, with a flexible prompt design, PAIE can extract multiple arguments with the same role instead of conventional heuristic threshold tuning. We have conducted extensive experiments on three benchmarks, including both sentence- and document-level EAE. The results present promising improvements from PAIE (3.5% and 2.3% F1 gains in average on three benchmarks, for PAIE-base and PAIE-large respectively). Further analysis demonstrates the efficiency, generalization to few-shot settings, and effectiveness of different extractive prompt tuning strategies. Our code is available at https://github.com/mayubo2333/PAIE.