Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning improves performance on complex tasks but introduces significant inference latency due to its verbosity. In this work, we propose Multiround Adaptive Chain-of-Thought Compression (MACC), a framework that leverages the token elasticity phenomenon—where overly small token budgets may paradoxically increase output length—to progressively compress CoTs via multiround refinement. This adaptive strategy allows MACC to dynamically determine the optimal compression depth for each input. Our method achieves an average accuracy improvement of 5.6% over state-of-the-art baselines, while also reducing CoT length by an average of 47 tokens and significantly lowering latency. Furthermore, we show that test-time performance—accuracy and token length—can be reliably predicted using interpretable features like perplexity and compression rate on training set. Evaluated across different models, our method enables efficient model selection and forecasting without repeated fine-tuning, demonstrating that CoT compression is both effective and predictable. Our code will be released in https://github.com/Leon221220/MACC.

CoT distillation is critical for enhancing small language models’ (SLMs) reasoning by transferring multi-step reasoning capability from the larger teacher models. However, existing work underestimates the importance of rationale quality, focusing primarily on data quantity, which may result in transferring noisy or incorrect information to the student model. To address the above issues, we proposed Model-Oriented Rationale Selection Distillation (MoRSD), which can discern and select high quality rationales for distillation. We further propose a Rationale Difficulty (RD) metric to measure the ability of the student model to generate the correct answer under a given rationale. Compared to the baseline, we achieved 4.6% average accuracy improvement on seven datasets over three tasks, using fewer rationales by controlling their accuracy, diversity, and difficulty. Our results reveal that a small portion of the high quality rationales can enhance the reasoning ability of student models than the entire dataset. Our method promises to be a possible solution for efficient CoT distillation. Our code will be released in https://github.com/Leon221220/MoRSD.