A/B testing is the gold standard for evaluating product changes, but each experiment requires real user traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of measurement. We propose a simulation framework that predicts A/B test outcomes using LLM-powered agents conditioned on data-driven personas grounded in real user behavioral signals. Unlike prior work that relies on synthetic or rule-based personas, our agents are constructed from anonymized behavioral data—activity patterns, engagement signals, and inferred demographics—enabling more faithful population modeling. We frame A/B test simulation as a structured question task and systematically study (i) question design formats, (ii) the impact of persona data source and domain alignment, (iii) the trade-off between per-persona behavioral depth and population diversity, and (iv) efficient population subsampling. On a benchmark of 40 A/B tests spanning two metric types, our best configuration achieves 0.75–0.90 directional accuracy depending on the test metric, demonstrating that data-driven personas are a viable path toward fast, low-cost experiment pre-screening.

In e-commerce, behavioral data is collected for decision making which can be costly and slow. Simulation with LLM powered agents is emerging as a promising alternative for representing human population behavior. However, LLMs are known to exhibit certain biases, such as brand bias, review rating bias and limited representation of certain groups in the population, hence they need to be carefully benchmarked and aligned to user behavior. Ultimately, our goal is to synthesise an agent population and verify that it collectively approximates a real sample of humans. To this end, we propose a framework that: (i) creates synthetic shopping agents by automatically mining personas from anonymised historical shopping data, (ii) equips agents with retail-specific tools to synthesise shopping sessions and (iii) introduces a novel alignment suite measuring distributional differences between humans and shopping agents at the group (i.e. population) level rather than the traditional “individual” level. Experimental results demonstrate that using personas improves performance on the alignment suite, though a gap remains to human behaviour. We showcase an initial application of our framework for automated agentic A/B testing and compare the findings to human results. Finally, we discuss applications, limitations and challenges setting the stage for impactful future work.