Reasoning with preconditions such as “glass can be used for drinking water unless the glass is shattered” remains an open problem for language models. The main challenge lies in the scarcity of preconditions data and the model’s lack of support for such reasoning. We present PInKS , Preconditioned Commonsense Inference with WeaK Supervision, an improved model for reasoning with preconditions through minimum supervision. We show, empirically and theoretically, that PInKS improves the results on benchmarks focused on reasoning with the preconditions of commonsense knowledge (up to 40% Macro-F1 scores). We further investigate PInKS through PAC-Bayesian informativeness analysis, precision measures, and ablation study.

Natural language processing has recently made stock movement forecasting and volatility forecasting advances, leading to improved financial forecasting. Transcripts of companies’ earnings calls are well studied for risk modeling, offering unique investment insight into stock performance. However, vocal cues in the speech of company executives present an underexplored rich source of natural language data for estimating financial risk. Additionally, most existing approaches ignore the correlations between stocks. Building on existing work, we introduce a neural model for stock volatility prediction that accounts for stock interdependence via graph convolutions while fusing verbal, vocal, and financial features in a semi-supervised multi-task risk forecasting formulation. Our proposed model, VolTAGE, outperforms existing methods demonstrating the effectiveness of multimodal learning for volatility prediction.