A/B testing is the gold standard for evaluating product changes, but each experiment requires real user traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of measurement. We propose a simulation framework that predicts A/B test outcomes using LLM-powered agents conditioned on data-driven personas grounded in real user behavioral signals. Unlike prior work that relies on synthetic or rule-based personas, our agents are constructed from anonymized behavioral data—activity patterns, engagement signals, and inferred demographics—enabling more faithful population modeling. We frame A/B test simulation as a structured question task and systematically study (i) question design formats, (ii) the impact of persona data source and domain alignment, (iii) the trade-off between per-persona behavioral depth and population diversity, and (iv) efficient population subsampling. On a benchmark of 40 A/B tests spanning two metric types, our best configuration achieves 0.75–0.90 directional accuracy depending on the test metric, demonstrating that data-driven personas are a viable path toward fast, low-cost experiment pre-screening.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have enabled their successful application to a broad range of tasks. However, in information-intensive tasks, the prompt length can grow fast, leading to increased computational requirements, performance degradation, and induced biases from irrelevant or redundant information. Recently, various prompt compression techniques have been introduced to optimize the trade-off between reducing input length and retaining performance. We propose a holistic evaluation framework that allows for in-depth analysis of prompt compression methods. We focus on three key aspects, besides compression ratio: (i) downstream task performance, (ii) grounding in the input context, and (iii) information preservation. Using our framework, we analyze state-of-the-art soft and hard compression methods and show that some fail to preserve key details from the original prompt, limiting performance on complex tasks. By identifying these limitations, we are able to improve one soft prompting method by controlling compression granularity, achieving up to +23% in downstream performance, +8 BERTScore points in grounding, and 2.7× more entities preserved in compression. Ultimately, we find that the best effectiveness/compression rate trade-off is achieved with soft prompting combined with sequence-level training.