Scientific weak signals are early, low-visibility research directions that later become central to mature scientific topics, yet existing resources such as trend tracking, citation forecasting, and foresight reports rarely provide validated reference sets that link concrete early precursors to later paradigms. We introduce BackTrend, a retrospective benchmark in which, given a mature target topic and a temporal evidence constraint, systems must recover two types of precursors: problem-space signals, underrecognized research problems, and solution-space signals, emerging methods for known problems. BackTrend contains 25 mature target topics in artificial intelligence and machine learning and 66 human-validated weak signals, reconstructed from large-scale literature by grounding each candidate in its 2019–2024 publication-frequency trajectory. We evaluate frontier LLMs, RAG systems, and agentic research systems via set-level and signal-level semantic matching. Current systems generate plausible but misaligned precursors, with topic drift, granularity mismatch, lexical near-miss, and coverage failure; no system exceeds single-digit LLM-judged F1, and additional retrieval or web search does not consistently help.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) incur high inference costs, often mitigated by efficiency techniques like quantization and pruning. However, the impact of these techniques on model adversarial robustness remains largely unexplored. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the interplay between efficiency, jailbreak vulnerability, and reasoning in LRMs. We find that while efficiency methods seemingly reduce the success rate of jailbreak attacks, this improvement is often superficial. It largely arises from degraded reasoning capabilities leading to “attempted but failed” malicious responses, rather than an increase in genuine alignment. Mechanistic analysis of representational drift confirms this, revealing a strict coupling between reasoning capability loss and the model’s inability to maintain malicious semantic trajectories. Additionally, we identify quantization with pruning as the optimal strategy to balance efficiency and robustness. These findings clarify the distinction between true safety alignment and capability-induced failure, providing an empirical foundation for LRM deployment.