The utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) in financial trading has primarily been concentrated within the stock market, aiding in economic and financial decisions. Yet, the unique opportunities presented by the cryptocurrency market, noted for its on-chain data’s transparency and the critical influence of off-chain signals like news, remain largely untapped by LLMs. This work aims to bridge the gap by developing an LLM-based trading agent, CryptoTrade, which uniquely combines the analysis of on-chain and off-chain data. This approach leverages the transparency and immutability of on-chain data, as well as the timeliness and influence of off-chain signals, providing a comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market. CryptoTrade incorporates a reflective mechanism specifically engineered to refine its daily trading decisions by analyzing the outcomes of prior trading decisions. This research makes two significant contributions. Firstly, it broadens the applicability of LLMs to the domain of cryptocurrency trading. Secondly, it establishes a benchmark for cryptocurrency trading strategies. Through extensive experiments, CryptoTrade has demonstrated superior performance in maximizing returns compared to time-series baselines, but not compared to traditional trading signals, across various cryptocurrencies and market conditions. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/Xtra-Computing/CryptoTrade

Large Language Models (LLMs) have garnered significant attention due to their remarkable ability to process information across various languages. Despite their capabilities, they exhibit inconsistencies in handling identical queries in different languages, presenting challenges for further advancement. This paper introduces a method to enhance the multilingual performance of LLMs by aggregating knowledge from diverse languages. This approach incorporates a low-resource knowledge detector specific to a language, a strategic language selection process, and mechanisms for answer replacement and integration. Our extensive experiments demonstrate notable performance improvements, particularly in reducing the performance disparity across languages. An ablation study confirms that each component of our method significantly contributes to these enhancements. This research highlights the inherent potential of LLMs to harmonize multilingual capabilities and offers valuable insights for further exploration.

The NLP community typically relies on performance of a model on a held-out test set to assess generalization. Performance drops observed in datasets outside of official test sets are generally attributed to “out-of-distribution” effects. Here, we explore the foundations of generalizability and study the factors that affect it, articulating lessons from clinical studies. In clinical research, generalizability is an act of reasoning that depends on (a) *internal validity* of experiments to ensure controlled measurement of cause and effect, and (b) *external validity* or transportability of the results to the wider population. We demonstrate how learning spurious correlations, such as the distance between entities in relation extraction tasks, can affect a model’s internal validity and in turn adversely impact generalization. We, therefore, present the need to ensure internal validity when building machine learning models in NLP. Our recommendations also apply to generative large language models, as they are known to be sensitive to even minor semantic preserving alterations. We also propose adapting the idea of *matching* in randomized controlled trials and observational studies to NLP evaluation to measure causation.

BERT-based models have had strong performance on leaderboards, yet have been demonstrably worse in real-world settings requiring generalization. Limited quantities of training data is considered a key impediment to achieving generalizability in machine learning. In this paper, we examine the impact of training data quality, not quantity, on a model’s generalizability. We consider two characteristics of training data: the portion of human-adversarial (h-adversarial), i.e. sample pairs with seemingly minor differences but different ground-truth labels, and human-affable (h-affable) training samples, i.e. sample pairs with minor differences but the same ground-truth label. We find that for a fixed size of training samples, as a rule of thumb, having 10-30% h-adversarial instances improves the precision, and therefore F1, by up to 20 points in the tasks of text classification and relation extraction. Increasing h-adversarials beyond this range can result in performance plateaus or even degradation. In contrast, h-affables may not contribute to a model’s generalizability and may even degrade generalization performance.

When trained effectively, the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) can be both a powerful generative model and an effective representation learning framework for natural language. In this paper, we propose the first large-scale language VAE model Optimus (Organizing sentences via Pre-Trained Modeling of a Universal Space). A universal latent embedding space for sentences is first pre-trained on large text corpus, and then fine-tuned for various language generation and understanding tasks. Compared with GPT-2, Optimus enables guided language generation from an abstract level using the latent vectors. Compared with BERT, Optimus can generalize better on low-resource language understanding tasks due to the smooth latent space structure. Extensive experimental results on a wide range of language tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of Optimus. It achieves new state-of-the-art on VAE language modeling benchmarks.

In cross-lingual transfer, NLP models over one or more source languages are applied to a low-resource target language. While most prior work has used a single source model or a few carefully selected models, here we consider a “massive” setting with many such models. This setting raises the problem of poor transfer, particularly from distant languages. We propose two techniques for modulating the transfer, suitable for zero-shot or few-shot learning, respectively. Evaluating on named entity recognition, we show that our techniques are much more effective than strong baselines, including standard ensembling, and our unsupervised method rivals oracle selection of the single best individual model.

Active learning aims to select a small subset of data for annotation such that a classifier learned on the data is highly accurate. This is usually done using heuristic selection methods, however the effectiveness of such methods is limited and moreover, the performance of heuristics varies between datasets. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a novel formulation by reframing the active learning as a reinforcement learning problem and explicitly learning a data selection policy, where the policy takes the role of the active learning heuristic. Importantly, our method allows the selection policy learned using simulation to one language to be transferred to other languages. We demonstrate our method using cross-lingual named entity recognition, observing uniform improvements over traditional active learning algorithms.