Yihong Liu
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2026
Calibration Is Not Enough: Evaluating Confidence Estimation Under Language Variations
Yuxi Xia | Dennis Ulmer | Terra Blevins | Yihong Liu | Hinrich Schuetze | Benjamin Roth
The Proceedings of the Third Workshop on Uncertainty-Aware NLP
Yuxi Xia | Dennis Ulmer | Terra Blevins | Yihong Liu | Hinrich Schuetze | Benjamin Roth
The Proceedings of the Third Workshop on Uncertainty-Aware NLP
Confidence estimation (CE) indicates how reliable the answers of large language models are and impacts user trust and decision-making. Existing evaluations mainly concern the alignment between confidence and correctness, but ignore the variability of language: confidence estimates should remain consistent under semantically equivalent prompts or answer variations, while changing when answer meaning differs, as this may indicate a change in correctness. Therefore, we introduce a novel evaluation framework based on three complementary properties: robustness to prompt perturbations, stability across semantically equivalent answers, and sensitivity to semantically different answers. We show that these metrics are largely independent of existing CE metrics, and that common CE methods often fail on them: while most methods achieve high robustness and stability, they struggle to distinguish semantically different answers, potentially because they do not effectively leverage generation-side information. Overall, our framework exposes overlooked limitations of current CE evaluations and provides guidance for selecting confidence estimators for real-world applications.