Large language models can generate long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, yet prior work suggests that CoT can be post-hoc rationalization rather than a faithful reflection of the computation through explicitly designed settings. In this work, we go further and propose a True Thinking Score (TTS) to quantify the causal contribution of each step in CoT to the model’s final prediction in realistic reasoning problems. Across eleven models ranging from 1.5B to 1.1T parameters on common reasoning benchmarks, we find that CoTs often interleave true-thinking steps, which causally affect the final answer, with decorative-thinking steps, which appear useful but have little causal influence; Such decorative steps remain prevalent even for frontier models: Over 30% of steps in Kimi-K2.6 are decorative on MATH with TTS ≤ 0.005. Furthermore, TTS enables effective CoT pruning: removing 50% of CoT steps with the lowest TTS can largely maintain the performance. Self-training on these pruned CoTs reduces reasoning length by 66% while preserving performance on Nemotron3-Nano-30B. Finally, we provide a mechanistic analysis showing that LLMs can be steered in the latent space to engage or disengage with reasoning steps. Overall, our results reveal that frontier LLMs often verbalize reasoning steps that are not causally used, challenging both the efficiency and the trustworthiness of CoT.

Large language models (LLMs) integrated into multi-step agent systems enable complex decision-making processes across various applications. However, their outputs often lack reliability, making uncertainty estimation crucial. Existing uncertainty estimation methods primarily focus on final-step outputs, which fail to account for cumulative uncertainty over the multi-step decision-making process and the dynamic interactions between agents and their environments. To address these limitations, we propose SAUP (Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation), a novel framework that propagates uncertainty through each step of an LLM-based agent’s reasoning process. SAUP incorporates situational awareness by assigning situational weights to each step’s uncertainty during the propagation. Our method, compatible with various one-step uncertainty estimation techniques, provides a comprehensive and accurate uncertainty measure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that SAUP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to 20% improvement in AUROC.

In-context learning has emerged as a groundbreaking ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) and revolutionized various fields by providing a few task-relevant demonstrations in the prompt. However, trustworthy issues with LLM’s response, such as hallucination, have also been actively discussed. Existing works have been devoted to quantifying the uncertainty in LLM’s response, but they often overlook the complex nature of LLMs and the uniqueness of in-context learning. In this work, we delve into the predictive uncertainty of LLMs associated with in-context learning, highlighting that such uncertainties may stem from both the provided demonstrations (aleatoric uncertainty) and ambiguities tied to the model’s configurations (epistemic uncertainty). We propose a novel formulation and corresponding estimation method to quantify both types of uncertainties. The proposed method offers an unsupervised way to understand the prediction of in-context learning in a plug-and-play fashion. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the decomposition. The code and data are available at: https://github.com/lingchen0331/UQ_ICL.